lol... your analysis is quite accurate. Somebody always knows something... in this case, 90% of the shares were held by institutions... so a third of the company was dumped on Feb 14... I would speculate that some of the well informed institutions dumped this a few days before the news... like you said, somebody always knows...
but here's my thoughts on the issue:
1. There is no way a major billion dollar drug is not going to be acquired by someone to rework the issue if there is one. All of the leg work has already been done.
2. It was a voluntary pull of the drug to limit any future lawsuits from anymore deaths or injuries. Pure insurance play so they can collect on any on cases before the information came to light... these will be covered in there Errors and omissions (E&O) policy which will compensate those cases. If there is knowledge of the issue and nothing was done to mitigate future claims, then E&O will not cover those cases. Hence the reason for pulling the drug off the shelves. Nothing to do with the effectiveness of the drug, more of a warning label issue like you have with other drugs. Full disclosure. That way if there is a death, the compensation for it is significantly less.
3. If AFFY is able to stay alive and work through the issue, if there is one, and take the necessary steps to bring it back into the market then this monster climbs from the $1's or even pennies back to the $30's... why, there is a lot of demand for this drug. Pent up demand will accelerate sales. They will rehire there work force.
If #3 does not happen, then the company will be sold well before bankruptcy if AFFY is not able to continue on with the rework... it takes years to get a drug to market, biotech giants are eyeing AFFY for a takeover... watch and see..
If you can afford to play with some money, this maybe the play of the year!
Full disclosure, I have 25k shares @ $1.38... not selling anything, going to ride all of the waves until I feel it's not going anywhere
the amount of time it would take to discover and resolve this issue is less than any drug in Phase II and a very high percentage of drugs in Phase II. The drug companies will not sit tight and allow Amgen to pocket high margins for E. They will move on O and rehabilitate the product. So we will see a merger, buyout, or major new partnership agreement. And this flirtation with BK will be a distant memory.