Alright guys i've witnessed the freakout for long enough and watched these shorts continue to freak you out. Let me give you a bit of prespective and you may choose to do with it as you please. Prior to today's close, the facts stood as this:
1. AFFY's one and only drug was recalled and possible BK was already factored into the price.
2. They paid off all their debts
3. With the cost of the research into the cause of the anaphylaxis, they were going to run out of funds by the 2nd quarter of 2013.
4. John Orwin is a #$%$ and a degenerate.
As of market close, the 4th statement still holds true but here is the upside, which the shorts are trying to get you to avert your gaze from:
1. TAKEDA believes in OMONTYS and now has rights to market in JAPAN and EU as stated in the 8K.
2. 10 million dollars for the first commerical sale of OMONTYS upon its return, which is greater than 1/4 of the current market cap.
3. Royalty payments upto 180 million dollars plus 13-17% US based sales and 13-24% outside US.
4. The current short percentage is still 40% guys and they will do everything in their power to short it.
5. Actually look at the After hour activity and the number of shares traded to drop the price, its mind blowing how manipulated this stock.
6. The stock now has an intrinsic value of approx $4.84 and with TAKEDA "taking full responsibility for OMONTYS, including the ongoing recall and investigation of OMONTYS"
7. This stock has a nice bounce left in it, don't allow the shorts to cover on fear tactics and remember to get out before Orwin does infact declare BK, because i am convinced that he is either on of the smartest TAKEDA agents working as a CEO or the dumbest CEO about to start working for TAKEDA. GL all
My 2 cents
Takeda has confidence in O but not to an extent where they would buy out affy. (Keeping in mind the messy situation of recall, deaths, a very strong competitor). they'll wait for the sandstorm to settle completely or to a reasonable proportion before they buyout. Buyout should come but I don't see that happening in near future, unless there is a dramatic resolve
I like your posts a_raj
Thank you for enjoying my posts, as yahoo has allowed me once again to start posting informative material. Also, if anyone has noticed godwinpeak finally admitted to being a short "by tens of thousands" he said. Here i thought, this entire time that he was just a really nice guy trying to help us poor investors make the right decisions. I am hurt by the fact that the most altruistic individual i have never had the displeasure to meet was in fact a self serving person. The fact that he posts constant tidbits of skewed information for our benefit was for his own personal agenda is unbelievable. ;) GL to all longs
"the object of life is not to be on the side of the masses, but to escape and find yourself among the ranks of the insane"-Marcus Aurelius
Don't think buyout will happen. Look at ARNA when it was traded at near $1 when ppl were shouting buyout. They are not in the business to buyout company. One thing for certain is that they will submit O for approval; not sure when though
As soon the PPS turns red, they are all over the place to scare people with all their BS judgements which has nothing to do with OMONTYS itself. I think they are paid bashers and AMGEN agents to fail the OMONTYS.
has anyone noticed the fact that the bashers now post every few seconds and are the only ones responding to their own posts without a single comment from others? win with quantity, not quality of subject matter. LOVE it!
Let me start with saying I am long, but I don't share your overly optimistic sentiment. I see a value of 4.30/share if the drug is brought back, and then due to royalties add another 5 dollars.
But here's the problem: if they cannot figure out why this causes death in such a small population, they cannot bring it back. Furthermore, since it's such a small population it's hard to study. You have to essentially have a cohort of 25000 people to find 5 people with the reaction.
So if they don't bring it back, the stock is worth zero. That's the number one reason i haven't pulled the trigger and bought more at these prices.
I will buy more, but I'm going to give it another month to play out and see what happens.
lol! that is the first time i have ever been judged as overly optimistic. This is just an educated guess from the data available and with my experience trading/researching biotech companies. AFFY is basically is a hollow shell company now with the current 8 K filing, they have licensed out OMONTYS and in return are willing to take 180 million plus percentage of royalties. The drug most likely caused allergic reactions due to the chemical composition and being derived from a polyethyl glycol base. These types of molecules are very large in size when compared to other compounds and are well known for causing aforementioned reactions. Now granted, i am no scientist but i do have a passion for organic chemistry. I believe that since TAKEDA does not wish to pay royalties to anyone, they will make a very very cheap bid for AFFY. If the only thing AFFY was trying to do was file for Bankruptcy, why pay off a loan that isn't due, why restructure in such a way that you cut out all your costs and why allow the full responsibility of the drug over to takeda? Logically speaking, even though AFFY is currently WORTHLESS, they have the potential to collect on a drug that will become the industry standard in the years to come. Please for God sakes don't tell me that a drug killing 5 morbidly sick people due to anaphylaxis is some sort of bloody serial killer drug. Have you ever heard of any weight loss drug ever? caused an absurd number of somewhat healthy, fat nonethelss, people to die from organ failure and others to go on DIALYSIS!!! I've been in medicine my entire adult life and have seen so called benign drugs kill more people than OMONTYS, 0.02% pf the patient population. TAKEDA has only to offer AFFY anywhere from 3-5 dollars, less than 200 million dollars to completely acquire 100% of the rights to a multi-billion dollar drug and tell AFFY to buzz off. That is my prediction and i could be 100% wrong, either way its worth the gamble and i will continue to hold a couple k
Is it pure ignorance or does the ambiguity of a SEC filing confuse you bashers. Its quite simple really, yesterday the company was basically nothing, zip/nada/etc. The reason for that was the costs associated with running their business and conducting the research into the anaphylaxis reactions on a drug that was PULLED from the market. Their cost for running their business was absurd. Now you have TAKEDA signing an agreement to basically pay for the cost associated with researching OMONTYS, reimbursing AFFY for the month of APRIL and the costs associated with transitions and in the future will market and distribute OMONTYS, while paying AFFY significant Royalty Payments, 180 million plus 13-17% US based sales which will be in the billions. I've been in the field of medicine long enough to make this statement "FDA does not care that 0.2% of an already morbidly sick patient population had an allergic reaction and 0.02% of those patients died". There are antidepressants on the market that cause suicidal ideations, damn near every other patient i have is deathly allergic to penicillin and morphine. Phenegran if infiltrated (means if the IV blows and it gets into the surrounding tissue) can cause necrosis. This necrosis may end up causing them to lose their hand, if the IV was placed there. The list is endless but the one thing they all have in common is Big Pharm is behind them and they are all on the market with information on the label. OMONTYS is no different, if TAKEDA speeds up the process of this research into the drug reaction, then you are looking at AFFY possibly surviving this ordeal. However, the management decisions of AFFY have been completely out of left field and every decision they have made since the drug has been marketed has harmed the share holders and benefited TAKEDA. If you are long, hold on until sometime between the 2nd quarter as checking for reactions to patients given OMONTYS for the first time is not too difficult.
I am with you in this. Once all the dust settles, this PPS is coming back to $4 - $5 range even OMONTYS is not put back in the market yet. Takeda will bring it back and we will be in seeing PPS in teens easily.
good post. as much as I thought the cEO is a moron... the latest development makes me think that maybe he got caught with his pants down with a Takeda hired called girl? So he rushed to destroy his own company so Takeda can have a sweetened deal?!