I think the Takeda buyout is done. Recent activity makes me think that.
The restructuring by TBG, only makes me more convinced of that and obviously the firing of Orwin only reinforces that. Takeda wants to take over a lean company with hugely reduced overheads. That is my gut feeling. The question now is, when will they announce it and at what price?. I am still thinking 5-7 PPS unless we get very lucky and we get 10PPS. Now to throw in a monkey wrench to this deal, the BOD might not want to hand O on a plate to Takeda. They want to negotiate a better deal. They know Takeda has the clout and resources to get O back on the market. Takeda knows that they can bring O back and I think so do Affy. I would not be surprised that there are negotiations going on back and forth. Affy might be weak but they have Takeda by the balls,and Takeda knows it because I am sure some other BP is salivating to grab O. Man my head is spinning with all these conspiracies. Time to grab a cold one and relax and wait for these games to be played out.
Takeda will only want to buy assets, not the company. In your valuation, Takeda would be paying (based on 37M shares outstanding) between $185M to $259M immediately. In fact, the ONLY asset Takeda could want is theTakeda/Affymax $180M milestone/royalties deal. What is that worth? $180M? More? Less? I bet Takeda could get it for a lot less. Step 1. Voluntarily withdraw the Omontys New Drug Application with the FDA's blessing.... Step 2. Announce that there are no plans to bring Omontys back to the commercial market, if ever, anytime soon. Step. 3. Wait for the Affymax Chapter 11 reorganization or, even possibly, Chapter 7 liquidation. Step 4. Buy the Takeda/Affymax $180M milestone/royalties deal for about $10M. Savings: $175M to $249M based on your valuation. Takeda: "Keep the change you dirty animals!"
gwp, don't scare the retail - What a low life you are! Takeda has to first reveal their investigation results to the institutions/retail/public and if O is the reason those 3 died, then they might do all the extremes you are saying but it is very difficult to prove that O is the reason. Even if O is the reason, then there is a black box warning they can do like your AMGN does. O is coming back and FDA likes O technology; there is no substitute technology for O yet. With a blackbox warning, O is going to be back for sure. If Takeda plays game like what you are saying, remember the entire world is watching it and no small pharma would like to partner with Takeda anymore ever.
I don`t thoink that AFFY is in as good a position as may believe. They certainly don`t have them by the balls. I think the bext case senario is that Takeda can bring back "O" to market and then the milestomes and royalties immediately kick in. That makes the stock worth about $5. If by chance Takeda doesn`t want to pay all that, and they offer a reasonable premium to AFFY, you might get slightly higher. Takeda may have clout with the FDA. The FDA doesn`t trust AFFY but they trust Takeda. No bidding war will ensue. I just hope something good happens soon..Nothing can happen while Orwin is CEO. By June 15 will say much, Until then, it`s like watching the grass grow......No matter how low it gets, the starting point is when reapproval occurs. No reapproval, no chance for the stock to recover. Just wait and see........My final thought here is that Takeda wants "O" and therefore, AFFY will recover.
AFFY discovered O..they have a drug discovery technology that discoved an FDA approved drug. They have patents that will not expire anytime soon. Next to that they still are into O. What about the tax carried forward. Costs have been reduced significantly. Man, there is a lot of (potential) value here but the market says its only worth 34 million bucks