Every morning I turn the computer on I see red.I have lost enough and plan to bail out next week. I have a feeling that this stock is going nowhere for a long time. I don't plan to sell until next week just incase they announce something in the next few days. Plan to put most of my money in titan, as I believe it's a good long term play and probably some in threshold and arena. I have been very positive on this stock but it's beginning to give me heartburn. With clsn and affy my ballz have turned from steel to mushy peas.
Fog: I'm sorry to see your pain. This is not short term play, it may take 3-6-12 months too or it could happen tomorrow or come Monday too. It is possible it may never come back.
I'm not playing for a chump change or small appreciation. Minimum I take 8-10 $.
There are 2 major players in this industry. AMGN/ROCHE and J&J with AMGN for Arsnep.
Roche due to some patent issues can't penetrate US Market and AMGN owns now the market place.
Takeda - has 2 options.
(a) SLUG IT OUT: Of course they are very long term player and they will sweat it out to corner the market. Unlike US other countries do not have concentrated players like Frensius, DaVita. They have individual hospitals and Dr. owned clinics. Once they could get clearance they should be able to penetrate the other markets with much ease. Slowly building up US operations
(b) Sell out: Which is extremely unlikely. If they buy out AFFY and put up Omantys up for sale, definitely both Roche and AMGN will be very interested in acquiring this drug. What would be the price? 2 BLN $, possible. For a 15-20% royalty and milestone payment it works out $500 MLN for AFFY.
I don't know what would happen. I took a position on my IRA and will wait it out. If this don't work out, I might have to work additional 4-5 months extra.
Jagan. The part that concerns me is that O may never come back. Affy is not in the financial position to do the investigation. It's all upto Takeda and they could decide that it's better to bail then spend millions on a futile investigation. Orwin basically killed this stock by invoking possible BK every time there was a press release. Even if they find some other issue, there is such negativity associated with O, that it might be an uphill task to convince care providers that it's safe. To give you an example. It's a different industry but perceptions take a long time to overcome. Alfa Romeo in the 70's started using cheap Russian steel. Their cars got to be known as rust buckets. It took Alfa well over a decade to overcome this perception.
On top of it, the world market regulations are not that Stringent and there are not many ambulance chasing lawyers. They might try to get approval with all sorts of Warning label from FDA to reintroduce and they will not penetrate the US Market except for well disciplined providers like major hospitals instead of those Dialysis centers. They will try to capture the rest of the world market which will be more appreciative for this drug, including their Home town Japan.