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Affymax, Inc. (AFFY) Message Board

  • foggiafc foggiafc May 9, 2013 12:11 AM Flag

    Raja my friend, you on today?.

    let me know

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    • All good info on this thread. Very informative. If I may, it seems that some very basic trading methodology was left out, though. We traded the entire float yesterday (more, in fact), and basically traded the entire float TWICE over the past two days. I know for a fact that A LOT of shorts are still out there (one of the things I was unsure of, since I have no way of getting up-to-date numbers on that), because people are reporting to me that they've tried to short AFFY now, and they can't ... no shares available to short. That means the short position is still HUGE at 40%. With the churning of shares along with price increase, it also means that a lot of new money has come in at higher prices (or DCA'd down if they were in from much higher prices, which is even better). Add that to the 40% short position and here's what you get, news or no news, today: There's virtually no upward resistance until at least the $2.30 area (it could be as high as $2.80). That's based on an educated guess of the start of the majority of short positions (as I've stated before, I was formerly short this stock) as well as former resistance points. It is my opinion that two things are happening: 1.) Someone with deep pockets is, indeed, buying up shares because they believe O is coming BTM, and 2.) The market is doing what it does when these stars align like this ... it's manipulating the price, and in this situation, the longs are the beneficiaries of that manipulation. After the past 2 days, from what I've seen, it's very simple: until those resistance levels are reached, they simply don't have enough shares to push this thing back down. Unless you just want to give your shares away, this should go over $2 today, VERY EASILY. As I said ... no one who has a reason to push it down has enough shares to push it back until those levels are reached (their break-even point). Lots of info we don't know, but I'm up extra early to find out more, but that's my take. GLTA.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Good evening foggiafc, I've been watching the board intermittently today but its amazing how much catching up you have to do after taking a day off from being sick...
      I am far more afraid of having a negative catalyst now with the price up than i did when the price was way down. Here are a couple of things that concern me, the volume traded today was 40.68 million today with approx 20 million shares traded yesterday.
      How is it that a company with a public float of 37.9 million shares traded this much when Nasdaq shows institutional ownership to be at 80.5%?
      Institutions report their holdings withing 45 days of the end of the quarter and the holdings show to be decreased from 91% to the current level showing at 80.5%, still at an amazing level.
      Volume virtually proceeds price is the so called "RULE" of the market and one rule that i know of the market is to never follow a herd, they will lead you off the cliff.
      The short interest is still showing to be 43.03% as reported by the wall street journal of 04/15/13 and if this was a short squeeze than it should have ended today but it was up in AH.
      I honestly have no idea what to make of the this radical upward trend but with no news its activated my "spidey senses" and something doesn't feel right.
      I would advise anyone holding shares or starting a position to be very cautious and always have stop/loss orders in place in case something drastic happens.

      At this point, I don't have any advice for either to hold or sell because i have seen this move in other biotechs before crashing and i have seen this move with SRPT before it rose 200% in one day. I remain adamant that you do not risk anything you can't afford to lose as this is still a high risk investment and has a potential for all or nothing. I wish all the LONGS GL and will definitely enjoy watching the shorts fry if positive news is reported tomorrow after hours.

      • 2 Replies to a_rajalonghorn
      • Well if I can jump in to bring a little update. According to shortanalytics the short interest is 40% (down 3% from your number) as of today closed of market. Since April 24 we have more Longs than Shorts is every trade day except yesterday. Today we have 14 446 384 longs versus 9659015 shares shorted and yesterday we have 6443061 longs versus 6686928 shares shorted. Even though theses number do not add up to the volume official number we got from the Nasdaq.I don't know what to make up about these numbers. However, if I have to speculate I would come to the conclusion that it is going to be hard to cover 15 millions shares. So, I guess MM tried hard to bring the pps down to shake weak hands it didn't work. So they tried the other way around. I think that big drop we saw at the end of trading day was another attempt to shake weak hands and today the gap between Long versus short is quite significant.If we have a good news the pps will go way higher and shorts will have to cover. On the other hand the fact we didn't break through the 50-DMA at $1.59 was a bit disappointing.

        Sentiment: Hold

      • Raja, nice to hear from you again. What makes me think that this rally has some legs is the fact that Zacks did a complete u turn and recommended Affy as a buy. When the last rally happened ,
        there was no buy recommendation from any one. There were no analysts saying this is a buy, Infact everyone said it's a strong sell. This feels different. There is something going on. I think BK is out but I have no idea if we are looking at a buyout or Affy being a shell company. If a good announcement about O we will gap up big. Takeda has a CC tomorrow and then Affy. I honestly think the big boys are planning to make a major announcement.

 
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