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  • be_hold_75pps be_hold_75pps May 11, 2013 4:32 AM Flag

    Golden Parachutes

    Terminated employees typically have 90 days to sell option grants, if they have any value. Any buyout would therefore be within that window, assuming Orwin has negotiated withTakeda in advance as part of a deliberate effort to transfer ownership and "reward" key employees, himself included. If ONTY is reintroduced within that window, buyout would be more like $15 IMHO. I believe press releases are nothing more than smoke screen. I believe reintroduction of ONTY is not highly "uncertain" as described in press release but more likely "certain" given recall was voluntary. Again, buyout would be within 90 days of first terminated employees and probably before Orwin's official termination on June 30. This is only plausible explanation I can have for recent surge in volume and reversal this week. I also believe AFFY has guided that insurance will cover shareholder litigation, which won't be settled for 2 years, as is typical. The stark reality is there are no major claimants between royalty and milestone payments flowing to common shareholders. I have rarely seen such a major investment opportunity and I would upgrade this to 10-bagger potential.
    FYI, I teach bankruptcy law at University of San Francisco and most on this board would be well advised to sit in on one of my classes.
    I of course could be wrong in my assumptions, but I would weight on histogram 80/20% I'm not.

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    • Strictly from a PR point of view of a company that wants to buy, you do not want to make the shares go up because your customer will have a valid reason to increase his demands. From a customer's point of view, you do not want prices to increase too much because it might make the buyers go away.

    • You mean $15 total.? Or do you mean $15 per share x $37 M shares = $555M? I have taken your bankruptcy class at USF and this post was taken directly from your final exam. One must read carefully to get the correct answer. Under all of the circumstances, the $15 total price is the more reasonable price instructs the Professor.

    • O that is pretty interesting. Mabye you could give me some advise on what to do with my shares of a company that cancelled their common shares because they did a section 363 sale.

    • where and when do these classes take place? gltu

    • Be Hold..I totally agree with your assessment. I think people forget that there is a very valuable asset here particularly in lieu of how hard it is to have a drug with decent revenue these days. Many distressed drugs have made it back on the market. With only 38 million shares, and a market cap of not much higher, there is much upside. If the stock isn't sold, the revenue could be well north of a $1 a share. Or, it a deal is struck, I bet it won't be less than $6 to $10 depending. Takeda could negotiate lower saying it is going to have to overcome a marketing disadvantage. Affy with no salary expense could just hold firm. I agree that bankruptcy would be stupid (not necessary anyways) because it puts the assets in play and out of Takeda control. I have run a business for 25 years so I see your logic.

      • 2 Replies to bullishcowboy1
      • pablogolecruz May 11, 2013 5:50 PM Flag

        The Institutions that invested in AFFY are who Takeda would have to deal with in regards to buyout out pricing. They have the power and the say to demand a price that is equitable and advantageous to all including retail investors except those short the stock.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Bull: this is exactly what I've been saying all along. Takeda is a successful business empire. They look at at it a lead product candidate with a potential of 4 Bln $ and with a profit margin in excess of 50%+, nothing provides them that sort of margins and that too for the next 15 years.

        In my opinion, from day one I believed it a very well orchestrated move by Takeda to dismantle AFFY and take it over. They don't want the fat of AFFY which is the EMPLOYEES and its setup. All along they have been made to do the legwork, during product trial phases, FDA submissions, marketing , manufacturing, if you know Affy's history you will know it better. They found the workforce to be very redundant, it was indeed a bottleneck, they wanted to get rid of. It is done. Just pay up the shareholders and own product asap 100%


        Sentiment: Hold

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