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Affymax, Inc. (AFFY) Message Board

  • wildbill400 wildbill400 May 11, 2013 8:28 PM Flag


    Just curious because I would love to check your math and logic, no bashers or pumpers please. thank you.

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    • I don't think it is possible to actually KNOW what a buyout offer would bring at this point...Depends on when and by whom and under what circumstances. A buyout without resolution of the issues at hand makes no sense for either party because the valuation will be totally risk based and risk, as you can see by recent trading alone, is very hard to assess. I personally believe it to be very low because I believe that the current evidence is indicative of human error by dialysis personnel NOT following allergic reaction instructions provided by Affymax (as described to and accepted by the FDA when approving the final clinical trial information for "O"). BUT since that has yet to be affirmed by the investigation any valuation will have to include an expected value of the various probabilities of outcomes from the investigation and it is highly unlikely that anyone would accept such without knowing for certain which way this story will end. One thing I am certain of, however, is that IF as I believe there was clinical error by Dialysis personnel two things will be true:

      1. The liability will shift entirely to the dialysis organizations.
      2. That AFFYMAX stock will surge multiples of its current share price. How many multiples hard to say, but the short covering will be massive and quite likely to push share price back toward prior highs. This will all happen with blazing speed and you have three choices in anticipation of this potential outcome:

      a. Sit on the sidelines and watch with amazement.
      b. Be short and find yourself without any control over your short covering as your brokerage firm does whatever they deem necessary to protect themselves (they don't give a rat's asset what happens to you)
      c. Be long and try to figure out what is your appropriate exit strategy which you will not have a great deal of time to ponder.

      What's the proper value of a buyout? You'll have to pay to play but it is free to watch!!!

    • I know impossible right?

      • 1 Reply to wildbill400
      • I don't really understand why it is impossible?

        Do you know what is excess liability over their current cash? And that too IS NOT CURRENT?

        it all revolves around the successful product re-launch.

        AFFY will be a cash cow, collecting 15-20% on ANNUAL SALES for the next 15 years, which is btw 1-4 BLN, go and do your math. 150-600 MLN for a 35 MLN share count. You roll your dice and wait, no panic.


        Sentiment: Hold

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