If AFFY does receive its $180 million royalty/milestone payment, and given the float of approx. 30 million shares, that's about $6/share. I would assume that this is the maximum price which AFFY can look forward to given all that's happened. Anyway, here's my thought: Given that such a large number of funds and institutions are in at much higher prices, it would make sense that the price manipulation we saw happen last week (all of the factors that caused it ... Zacks upgrade, conveniently timed SA articles, other news releases, and the obvious churning of shares, etc.) may continue. If you were a fund/tute in at $25-$15/share, you could make you money back by repeatedly manipulating the price swing by a dollar or more, shorting on the way down, and going long on the way up. It would make sense for them to do this if they know the price will never go back to the levels they bought at, and if that's what's really going on (it looks like it's happened twice so far, since the initial plunge from $16), I think we can count on it happening some more. I'm thinking I may ride this roller coaster for a third time if the price/volume feel right. GLTA.
I think you're wrong. First, 180 million is not the jackpot, as Jagan said, it's the 13% of a 500 million-1 billion dollar yearly market worldwide. Secondly, institutions that are in at higher prices do not go in and out of short positions as quickly as you think. Small hedge funds have the nimbleness to do this, but the larger funds with millions of shares (2.5 million is about the largest shareholder) cannot short willynilly. I don't dispute that the articles are a pump, and maybe for a dump, but it's not to cycle shares over and over.
I think that this rollercoaster is almost over based on the last 10k.
you are wrong. it is not the 180 MLN milestone payment.
It is the Jackpot which is the royalty payout of 13-23% of worldwise sales of Omontys, on SALE Value.
Expected ww sales is 4 BLN +
You do the math!
I'm not denying that there's a chance that that could happen. I'm just somewhat dubious about the idea of AFFY going back to prices like $10, $15, or $25/share. Not as a shell company. They've even already changed their website. It's just a shell. That doesn't mean there's no value in it. I just don't think buy and hold is the most viable way to play this particular stock, given all that's happened. But you do what you want. GL.