Would love to have a battle of wits with Maxdad - But he is unarmed!
Wow. That Maxdad is long on name calling, but he sure is short on substance. He says that Affymax is going to as much as 20X its current share price. Let's see. 20 x $1.39 is $27.80 per share. Last year, when all was well, AFFY hit a high of $27.74 on October 17, 2012. By Maxdad's calculations, he values AFFY as high as $27.80 share x 37M shares = $1.028 Billion! AFFY's only asset is the Takeda $180M milestone/royalties deal. Maxdad is too funny! See why I enjoy this AFFY board and its paid pumpers so much. They are outlandish and so easy to expose.
Hey take it easy on my new friend Madmax!! He is all effort and short on information and has been misled by wearing rose colored glasses while drinking electric kool-aid. Lol He needs to dive into the 8k's and 10k for Affy and then come back and post with the Adults in the room!!
You obviously KNOW NOTHING ABOUT FINANCIAL ANALYSIS (which by the way I taught in the MBA night program at Stern--NYU's B-school) !!! The PRESENT VALUE OF AFFYMAX (assuming the return of Omontys to the market PLUS Europe, Japan and the rest of the world) is the DCF of the milestone payments and the royalties from Takeda to AFFY (or, more specifically, whatever AFFY is to become) based on an estimated range of revenues over a seven year period (the most widely used time window for such calculations). This most certainly would be HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS (likely more) times the various royalty rates specified in the Amended Agreement discounted to present valued (DCF) PLUS current assets less liabilities ALL divided by the approximately 40 million shares outstanding. That would easily put net present value at 10 to 20 TIMES current share price. And this does NOT include any potential impact from what would be a MASSIVE SHORT SQUEEZE (which I will be delighted to see you enjoying no doubt :-)
NOTE: REPEATING...This analysis is predicated on a return of Omontys to the market.
Lawyers only learn how to argue but apparently don't ever get trained in financial analysis...LMAO !!!
Your theory is long on assumptions and ignorant of reality. You assume that Omontys is coming back to the American market, and will be introduced into the European market and the Japanese market in the very near future. It assumes that the medicaly community are eager to use Omontys in lieu of the industry standard Epogen/Aranesp.
Omontys has just two benefits: (1) Its efficacy is non-inferior to the Amgen industry standard ESAs Epogen/Aranesp, and (2) It can be dosed once a month for CKD patients on dialysis only.
Omontys has many downsides: (1) The advantage of once a month dosing is lost on CKD dialysis patients and makes little to no difference to those patients since they are infused thrice weekly; (2) Compared to Epogen/Aranesp, the long term industry standard with proven safety profiles, Omontys has a reputation as an inherently dangerous and killer drug among the nephrologists who prescribe the medication; (3) Amgen has long term contracts to supply Epogen/Aranesp with the nation's leading dialysis centers so the market is contractually limited for Omontys in all events; (4) Emerald studies proved that Omontys was unsafe for the "healthier" CKD patients not on dialysis when compared to Epo; (5) no European approval for Omontys and none likely in the foreseeable future given the present circumstances [unlike as suggested by you and other pumpers, the EMA does not make decisions in a vacuum by blind consideration of only and just the original test result that supported the application for approval]; (6) In AFFY's 2012 3rd Q 10Q, it was disclosed that Takeda had decided not to seek approval to market Omontys in Japan; (7) In Takeda's May 9, 2013 CC and webcast, Takeda disclosed that it was not projecting any sales of Omontys for its upcoming FY 2013, and could not say when Omontys would be reintroduced into any market.
The egghead stuff is useful but must be applied practically to the real world. If you must use an academic approach, I would suggest using some Decision Analysis to augment your financial analysis. Specifically, this would mean multiplying whatever valuation you give to AFFY by the probability that O returns to market before AFFY disappears.
My calculation would be something like:
$200 million present value of AFFY * 5% chance of O return = $10 million.
The other 95% chance that O does not return in time to benefit AFFY = $0.
So, in my view, true value of AFFY is roughly $10 million. It is all about whether O will return in time to benefit AFFY in any way. How one can think that this has much chance, I do not understand. It is not in touch with reality. Thank you.