Seems to me (as I suggested previously) that these actions are all leading to a shareholders meeting where they will discuss/decide on how to proceed with the transition and transfer of assets (OMONTYS) to Takeda under a deal which has been in negotiations for weeks. Their negotiated payoff of two major contracts announced is consistent with Takeda taking operating control (which has been going on for months). These are NOT ACTIONS OF A COMPANY IN A PENDING BANKRUPTCY!!! The SEC ruling didn't just coincidentally set the delisting date (normally a 90 day window) to be the same day as the shareholders meeting AND the lack of update from EMA is equally non-coincidental. But the SEC ruling (other than the timing was correct)...AFFYMAX is a non-operating shell company...ONE WITH AN EXTREMELY VALUABLE ASSET in OMONTYS.
Hard to tell exactly how this will shake out but there are hundreds of millions of dollars at stake and the only question which remains is whether you believe that Takeda will or won't put Omontys back on the market? IF YES (as I strongly believe to be the case) the deal will be worth many times the current share price. IF for some reason they are concluding it should never return (HIGHLY UNLIKELY given the $600 million spent and the tiny % and unique circumstances of the 5 fatalities vs. 25000 successful patients) then the stock value can't exceed the value of the tax loss carry-forwards.
I see a lot of people running scared after hours today, but to me this is all part of a highly orchestrated arrangement to finalize the transfer of ownership of Omontys from Affymax to Takeda at what must be a fair price (DCF of contractual milestone payments and perpetual royalties). Will be very interesting to see how this plays out over the next 7 days!!!
excellent info - thanks. there is more than meets the eye.
(what is obvious is not the real thing, firts bk and now OTC thats not why we are seeing huge vol ups, something bigger is in the works)
Max: I agree 100% with you. These are very well orchestrated moves. The guy who is buying 10's of millions of shares, if he makes couple of $s it is worth 20 MLN and on top of it, they control the Voting shares.
I definitely feel, Takeda has the voting shares during the move when 45 MLN shares changed hands btw 1.85-1.95
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This announcement since it is received from Nasdaq a material event needs to be reported.
The cancellation of the contract mfg with NEKTOR is a known stuff, since Takeda won't like a third party manufacturing the stuff.
I'm unmoved with these ups and downs.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
What I believe is that the deal between Affymax and Takeda is coming to fruition over the next week and everything else that has occurred has been orchestrated to facilitate that happening at the Shareholder's meeting. Shorts could be right...including you, but NOT LIKELY so yes I believe that the risk is not only "not significant" but now INSIGNIFICANT. The question that remains (at least for me) is how much will Takeda pay and under what constructs. They already know whether or not Omontys will be returning to the marketplace (including with the EMA)...The rest is simply mechanics.