The questions are right...The answers are my own opinions:
1. Does Omontys come back into the market? Very likely...probability 90%+
2. Do current Affymax shareholders profit from Omontys return? Probably...probability better than 50-50 but given how things have already played out, how much better than 50-50 is impossible to predict. Timing and the role of Takeda will be the driving forces on the answer to this question.
I've been loosely following this, so excuse me if I've missed something....I don't understand how Affy just folded like a cheap card table when this all went down, shouldn't they have been more defensive with all the data/fda trials to back them? I would think their stance would have been of abnegation, and focus on contamination, counterfeit , and or mis-use or how administered...If you believe in your product.I just don't get it
How could the answer to #2 not be virtually 100% yes? Per the April agreement, AFFY is to be pd on sales. Only if Takeda would for some reason sell all rights to O to a 3rd party (remote possibility) could I see the April agreement not applying. Why do you say only "better than 50/50"?
Only because things that are 2-3 standard deviations away from "normal" have occurred with this company...a 6 day delisting (never saw that before) on the same day as shareholders meeting...the chairman of the board fired as CEO but remains as Chairman while working for a competitor...The EMA results NOT published. Takeda investigation should be over and released and Omontys back on the market, what's holding this up...
So the only reason I'm NOT giving #2 a 98% is because some flaky things keep occurring. If this was most any other company with the rest of the profile (Specifically an investigation into the remaining 3 deaths which were most likely human failure), #1 would be done and successful and #2 should either be done or damned close...And in my best estimation both probably are...BUT because they are not completed I can't do much better than 50-50 though I'm holding my 100k shares so I guess I'm pretty optimistic personally that #2 will go well...but for purposes of sharing here I really don't want to present anything more than an "unknown" for #2.
One last thing that is extremely optimistic...The institutional owners (and there are several MAJORS with big positions) have not sold...or at least there has been no SEC filing of them selling anything!!! And I can assure you what us little guys don't know, they do!!! And just watch what happens if a Blackrock increases their stake (I'm not suggesting they will)...
Omontys could be cleared at ANY TIME and when that happens there will be a massive short squeeze regardless of whether a new deal between Takeda and Affymax occurs simultaneously.
The 1st I'm not worried about... It's the 2nd that concerns me. I believe in the product. I don't believe honestly at this point that management gives a hoot about the shareholders. How could they after all that's happened? And I am honestly long, and hope I'm wrong.
Here are my opinions
1. Does Omontys come back into the market?
Very likely...probability 90%+ agreed. but when 6 months? after dilutions? when the stock price drops to 16c?
2. Do current Affymax shareholders profit from Omontys return? of course YES. it will jump x10 from 16c .. will be 1.6.
Just my opinion
First question: IF.
And I agree regarding O's likely return. That's why I remain long.
Second question: WHEN?
Coz without any news this is just going to slowly drown as buyers loose interest and patience, and shorts drip, drip, drip... Might just as well sell here and buy back in at $0.80 / $0.70 / $0.60... In the absence of any catalyst, that Is where AFFY's headed.