If you've read my posts the past couple of days O returning will almost certainly be simultaneously associated with a deal between Takeda and Affymax, Fresenius and Takeda, and signoff (not that it is required) by the FDA (and probably a corresponding approval by the EMA). I do not personally think that it will be anywhere near $27 offer with $12 as the current discussion point but a big question of from which side...so you have to judge is $12 the floor or the ceiling in the T&A (like that???) Negotiations. I am leaning heavily toward it being the floor offer from Takeda but I truly don't know. I also believe that it is not the least bit coincidental that this surfaced shortly after the verdict in the Pfizer/Takeda Patent victory yesterday with Takeda getting 34% of the $2.15 BILLION settlement. While I do not believe that the ultimate price will get close to your $27 PS target, but I do believe it will be ABOVE the $12 (my judgment!!!) level, there is still the wildcard impact of the remaining significant short positions which will be squeezed completely upon the announcement of O's return to market (and the rest of the arrangements above). It would not be the least bit unusual if this squeeze actually eclipses the deal price...And I'd be delighted with $27 but just don't think it will get up that high.
The above is what GS/JPM Judas Sheep Maxdad has to say. Maxdad knows it is easier to sell a pig in a poke with glowing untruths that appeal to blinded greed. Play the MMs swings if you can, but do not fall into Maxdad's trap and become a "buy and hold" AFFY Bagholder. Here is what AFFY says from its 10Q:
In order to address the safety concerns resulting in the recall of O, Takeda would have to complete its ongoing thorough investigation, identify the causes of the serious allergic reactions and provide a suitable plan to the FDA for approval. We are unable to predict when or if this process may be completed or the associated costs, but we expect that THE [TAKEDA\FDA] INVESTIGATION MAY BE LENGTHY.
When and if Takeda reintroduces O, which is HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, it will be even more challenging for Takeda to accomplish these activities in view of the recall and related safety concerns particularly due to the long-term experience with currently marketed products and negative perceptions of O's safety.
IF TAKEDA IS UNABLE TO REINTRODUCE THE PRODUCT or we are unable to obtain additional funding IN THE NEAR FUTURE, our cash resources will rapidly be depleted and we will be required to materially reduce or suspend operations, which would likely have a material adverse effect on our business, stock price and our relationships with third parties with whom we have business relationships, at least until additional funding is obtained. If we do not have sufficient funds to continue operations, WE COULD BE REQUIRED TO liquidate our assets, SEEK BANKRUPTCY PROTECTION or other alternatives that would likely result in our receiving less than the value at which those assets are carried on our financial statements, and IT IS LIKELY THAT INVESTORS WOULD LOSE ALL OR SOME OF THEIR INVESTMENT IN US.
Max, you mention "12 dollars" as if it's a reference point, for which it could be either over or under. It makes it sound like you heard that someone important floated the number 12, and now you are trying to figure out whether it will go above or below.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought you arrived at 12 dollars as a calculation of your own, and not from a source of some sorts. If it's a calculation of your own, the idea of that number being a floor or ceiling seems a bit misleading, since we have no idea if Takeda arrived at the same calculation as you did.
The price I put on the company is more on the order of 400 million too, but that doesn't mean that takeda got that price in their calculations.
If Affy's stock price is $1 or $2 at time of buyout, why would Takeda pay $12? Takeda is paying right now, not Affy, they will want to be reimbursed which may lower the buyout price further. Again, I hope you are right but I think $5 to $10 and we may have to wait until 2014.
I'm long but I don't expect to see $27 ever again. The fundamentals have drastically changed and cannot be reversed. $5 to $10 is more realistic and it may take months to get there IMHO. I hope you are right and I am wrong.
according to godloose, greydouche and pokerdope...no, in their world everyone would be scared from deaths and the stock would tank, then everyone would riot and pour cans of monster into the gutter cause that killed people too...then ws would get together and form a pact , because that would be too much money to make in a day...they would spread it out over a couple weeks so the percentage of increase wouldn't look ridiculous ...and their calculators don't have that many zeros rotfl