Because I am leaving on a two week vacation early Tuesday (and will not be active on this board during that period), I tried to wrap up remaining analysis this weekend. If you will take some time to read these posts (and prior ones too) you will likely come to the conclusion that IT ALL COMES DOWN TO THE RETURN OF OMONTYS TO THE MARKET. No matter what I say or analysis I have provided, the rest (valuation and construction of what becomes of AFFY) comes down to all the other variables I have analyzed and discussed. It doesn't matter one iota what I or my various "adversaries" say here about Omontys, AFFY or even me and my analysis, what will be left as variables will be the specific construction of THE DEAL and the various peripherals to it (Fresenius/Takeda conclusions, FDA confirmation, EMA, etc.).
So the ONLY THING (longs and shorts) need to determine at this point is whether or not Omontys will be returned to market and when. I believe that the evidence of return of Omontys is overwhelming given both the history of Rx's with the fatality stats of Omontys (.02% or 5 out of 25,000 less the two that were dismissed for other reasons) PLUS all the recently focused attention (but somewhat old news) on Fresenius' history of fatalities and clinical violations. As such I am about as certain as I can be (nothing is 100%) that Omontys will be returned to market and soon and that THE DEAL between Affymax and Takeda is forthcoming.
I continue to believe it will all be resolved in the next 4-6 weeks (now closer to 3 to 5), but with any "complications" could be 5-7 weeks (at this point)...But no later than the end of July. And it certainly is possible that things have advanced faster than I have analyzed and concluded and could be effectuated at virtually any time. So while I anticipate that there will still be active debate here by the time I return I would be delighted if these announcements of Omontys return and Takeda/Affy deal occur while I am on vacation. MORE
I have dealt with the FDA, DEA, and CMA many times over the last 20+ years. Although I believe "O" has a decent chance to be brought back, I have backed that up with small purchases over the last couple weeks, the speculative timeline is not realistic based on my prior experience.
I guarantee you not much will have changed within the next couple weeks, these things take much more time than you imagine they ever will.
Good luck fellow longs
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It looks to me as if you were fibbing again Maxdad that you were going to spend Father's day with your family. Can't you ever tell the truth about anything? I guess the pump and dump and Operation AFFY Retail Bagholders takes precedence in the GS/JPM fraudster kind of world huh? I wait a minute. What you are really trying to do is make all the retail who read your posts and "buy and hold" AFFY rich. Is that it?
I think some posters here are just trying to look at the clues and help others on the Bullish side, thats it. The more gloom and doom by a select few is suspicious.
The constant Bear campaign actually makes me more bullish. Just like QCOR at $18 - $20.
The fact is that the recall WAS NOT FDA mandated. It was VOLUNTARY and the issues were isolated by a few occurrences, not a mass outbreak of issues, isolated. Do some reading here. To protect the safety of the patients. Yes, someone @#@ed up though. Was it a nurse, a contaminated vial, human error, inexperience, a non-CKD patient contrary to the label? Well, its a possibility, right?
The drug worked fine in trials and also SUB-Q you will see that there are NO ISSUES there, none !!!
Attacking others on the boards is childish. the ARNA people did this day and night at $1.50 and the stock went to $9.00 BTW. HH.
I have said this before. Why listen to posters who are here day and night around the clock. It makes you think they have an agenda to wear down scared retail folks into selling. You know retail investors who come here to read any updates, not listen to a few constant scare mongers.
FACT: The case is in Takeda's hands (whom has invested years and over $600MM) into this deal. More than you and I.
Will they stand by and watch their money get FLUSHED? NO WAY !!! Not this fast and easy. There are solutions and they will try to work through them.
Again, the recall was voluntary and the drug can be placed back on the mkt once all parties are in agreement to move forward.
I'm in and holding. You do whats right for you.
I hope this is turns out to be a great vacation and that you enjoy every moment. Thanks for all the advise and insight that you have provided both here and at QCOR. Looking forward to your return and that pleasant surprises greet you.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I wish i had your conviction, but in this case i feel price is truth. Taking this stock down to 40M around a buck PPS and delisting gives me very little hope, regardless of what i think about the drug and just a few fatalities. Im only invested in $900 bucks (30 calls for Oct at $2 strike) which i think are dead, but if you insist there is a high probability of me making a killing on these then who am i to keep arguing lol
I think its just wishful thinking on your part, but there is always hope.
Well if it is any comfort to you I have WAY MORE invested (but not options, though I think your October date should be just fine) and I only wish you knew both my background and how broad and deep my research and analysis have been. But I have to sign off and wish you the very best.
So in my absence:
1. I do hope these conclusions are reached sooner than later but am totally comfortable waiting until the end of July if it should take that long.
2. I am as convinced as one could be that the Omontys outcome will be favorable and that THE DEAL between Affymax/Takeda will occur and be announced virtually simultaneously.
3. I am confident that on those convictions that when this is all public Affymax share price will not only increase 10-20X+++, but that a massive short squeeze (TSUNAMI :-) is an absolute certainty.
4. I hope that this board will stay reasonably civil but seriously doubt that will occur potentially even after all this is resolved and disclosed :-)
5. And that while I'm gone and this is still in "limbo" that you will all read carefully my various analyses, especially the one's I posted today on deal construction and valuation variables.
6. That you will try, while attempting to be civil, to keep the fear mongerers from conjuring up new (or old) unsubstantiated and non-substantial threats, though that doesn't matter much either because:
IT ALL COMES DOWN TO WHETHER OR NOT YOUR THESIS IS OMONTYS RETURNS OR OMONTYS IS PERMANENTLY ELIMINATED. You have about as much information on this question as will be available and making this one decision (in or out) is critical to your investment in Affymax. You all know my views on this, but would benefit in understanding some of the other factors that will play out after this question is answered...and have some sense of the constructs and value potential of the Takeda/Affymax deal however this one question is definitively answered and the rest plays out.
I wish you all the best and a happy father's day. It would be nice to see this all resolved while on vacation (I will still call in for quotes as my main indicator of whether or not this has been resolved and announced) and look forward to returning here around July 2nd.
Good luck and the very best to all of you.
Max have a wonderful time during your vacation. You know what??? Even if it didn't happen the way you predicted, I would really appreciate your time and relentless effort to dig this matter to its deep and consistently kept your conviction firm and strong. I would tell you that I am adding some positions to my existing one. Good luck to all of us and see you here after two weeks. Safe and peaceful travel !!