What is the ultimate prize for Takeda with respect to O? Is the ultimate prize the Takeda buyout of AFFY at a share price to make the likes of AFFY longs and paid pumpers, Wildshill, Maxdad, jagan, diejour and savvymonkey rich? Is the ultimate prize to own all of O? How can Takeda achieve the ultimate prize?
1. The Operation AFFY Retail Bagholders premise: Takeda buys AFFY at $10 to $30 per share. This values AFFY, with 37M shares outstanding, at between $370M and $1.11B. AFFY's only asset worth anything is the Takeda $180M royalties/licensing agreement [TRMA]. The numbers alone belie the absurdity of the paid pumpers' story. But it does take big lies consistently repeated to create minions of AFFY bagholders. The alternative to the Takeda buyout premise is that the AFFY Royalties Trust premise results in this same absurd story of riches.
2. The "more reasonable" retail long premise: Takeda buys AFFY at $3 per share which values AFFY at $100.1M. Still pretty optomistic, but longs have tripled their money from here. The premise ignores that any purchaser of AFFY under their scenario still gets all of the litigation and products liability claims. The alternative, the AFFY Royalties Trust premise, would still support this sp valuation, but it ignores that O must return to market SOON for any of this to happen. It also ignores problems of O's damaged reputation and virtually insurmountable competition from the well established industry standard anemia drugs, Epogen/Aranesp, and new competition, such as Micera and biosimilars.
3. The short premise: O does not come back to the market IN THE NEAR FUTURE and AFFY seeks Chap 11 bk reorganization. AFFY's Chap 11 resolves all pending litigation and products liability claims. Takeda can buy the TRMA for a bk ct approved bargain price, or acquire reorganized AFFY for new shares that dilute current shareholders. Takeda gets the ultimate prize - all of O. AFFY bagholders now own worthless shares.
comment on option 3: too many core employees who have been around during the entire proces of more than a decade of cooperation between Affy and Takeda are holding common shares. Do you realy believe that if O does not come back to the market it is worth zero, nada, nothing?? Japanese companies like Takeda put a lot of effort in maintaining a good image. If they have the money and can spend the money on getting something like O and maintaining a good business and partner image I am sure they will spend that money.
Even with having an approved status but not coming back to the market O is a very valuable compound to further research on. But with 10 years of research.and .a complete phase 3 for safety done I am confident that O will be reintroduced within 2 years time. I personally believe the word will be out before the end of this year that O will be coming back to the market
Holland, with all due respect, Takeda maintaining a good image with respect to O is hardly an investment premise for AFFY stock. For example, one could say that with O being "noninferior" and less safe than the industry standard anemia medications, that Takeda's reputation and Japanese reputation for the long term view would compel Takeda to undertake a huge, multi-year safety study of O before it is reintroduced into the USA or any world market for that matter. By then, O's immediate damaged reputation would have been forgotten or lessened with the passage of time, and Takeda could tout a new, improved and safety-proven O. It would take years, and AFFY could not survive. I do note that Takeda was recently given EMA approval to test O for pediatric patients with testing to conclude 14 years from now in 2027. I guess my point is that improving or maintaining Takeda's reputation does not require that O must be reintroduced in the near future. I hope you are able to make a profit from your AFFY trade, holland. PS Takeda does not forecast any O revenues for its FY 2013.