The idea of a buyout before Omontys is reintroduced is ridiculous
No large publicly traded company is going to buy AFFY without first knowing whether Omontys is coming back to market. The idea that a company could get a better deal today before O is reintroduced and therefore is the incentive for someone to buy now and get a discount is not how corporate America works. Hedge funds and some private equity might take such a chance but not a public company. Can you imagine if a public company bought another company for say $200 million and 6 months later it turned out to be worthless? What do you suppose would happen to the people who made that decision- who by the way are on salary? How about the litigation on behalf of shareholders of the purchasing company? If Omontys is reintroduced, I would expect that Affy would eventually be bought in the future but not for some time after a royalty stream could be established and a value could actually be placed on the company.
Yes- Of course every business deal contains risk and some companies go bankrupt. But my point is that AFFY risk/ reward is currently way too high- much higher than the examples you mention for a publicly traded company to buy them. I own AFFY at 1.24 so think it is a good risk reward for me at that number but not for a large public company.
Yes large pharmas buy / partner with small biotechs all the time with a pipeline of potential drug(s) But AFFY is different in that it is an all or nothing proposition - worth either zero or several hundred million so impossible to value - either for a purchasing company or for the AFFY board. EVERY Yahoo message board for biotechs is full of buyout chatter so no different here.