i've watched this go up from 80 cent to what it is now and feel like i have to wait for some pull back. then i read all the posts and it seems this stock is not like that. seems this stock is waiting on news. its hard to figure the run up? unless someone already knows something. i've read most of maxdad's posts and also the negative posts. at this point who knows. could use some help. thanks
Well, I was one of "those" people who bought at $1 and sold at $1.16 for a small gain and now look at the price! I decided to bite my lip and move 10% of the profits I have made in QCOR over the last 2 weeks back into AFFY at $1.75. GO BABY GO!!!!!
If I lose, oh well, it was only ever profit anyway and it is wise not to go against Maxdad thesis!!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Forget about the shorts. they don't provide any concrete evidences or reasoning at all. If I were you, first read Maxdad's posts, then make up your mind. At this point, the question is not whether O is coming back, it's when it's coming back, and how O stock owners will be compensated.
Your choice is pretty binary. You have to decide which "thesis" you believe to be true. Today's info from Fresenius was certainly a positive step forward toward resolution, though neither definitive nor clearing the question of "how much longer". They have moved from Post-Mortem analysis to effectively a mini-trial to trace some potential DNA factors. BUT the fact that Fresenius and Takeda are working together bodes very well for a continued relationship WHEN/if Omontys is brought back to market...And you know I am personally convinced it will be brought back. Affy appears under control financially and in position to wait until this has all been resolved...BUT with Omontys back AND Fresenius as a client, the payoff to Affyshareholders will be on the high end...versus losing Fresenius' long term business...They are after all the largest dialysis company (though hardly the best).
OR you can buy into the short thesis which suggests that everything is falling apart, affymax is a total house of cards and that at best this is a trading opportunity...It's not that I choose not to buy into this, it's that there are so many "toxic" drugs that stay on the market and I know of NONE that has anywhere near Omontys fatality statistics that either didn't remain on the market or was withdrawn and brought back...NONE!!!
But this is your call...You have to decide the coefficient of risk (I believe it's quite low) versus the payoff you'll get when Omontys is returned. It really does come down to that. I certainly would discourage anyone from shorting it here...but good luck with whatever your decision turns out to be.
At TD Ameritrade, retail cannot short this stock. I do not know where or how retail may be able to short AFFY. Based on my experience, I have yet to remember or recall a particular stock/situation where WS had it rigged such that retail could only go long (and could not open retail short positions) that retail actually made money on a buy and hold strategy. I can recall plenty of stocks where retail could not open short positions that ultimately continued to trade until they went on to disappear forever - e.g. recall the Chinese stocks that everyone realized had fraud issues that continued to trade until ultimately worthless.
If you look at the last 2 ralleys we had up to $2, they only lasted 2 days each on huge volume (10x what we are seeing now) and were followed by huge drops immediately afterwards. This has been a more steady climb for the past 5 days, much lower volume and seems to have stabilized for now so although there may be pull backs, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see the buck range again. Also I think when Takeda releases a PR concerning the DNA test agreed upon with the FDA as part of the investigation, there should be a strong surge again
Hope you are right, and we get to the $1 range again, I also have been reading posts, and articles surrounding AFFY. Back in May I concluded that no major announcement could be made until October-December, of course this is my just ignorant opinion based on the parties involved. Still holding my small position from $1.25. I only intend to increase my position if the $1 range reappears. GLA.