As per Jagan. ROFLMAO!!! Just as outlandish as most of the pumper BS. Billions in royalty payments! Buy out prices of between $8 and $28 per share for AFFY. With 37M shares outstanding, that means these pumpers would have you believe that AFFY is worth between $296M and $1.036B in present dollars.
Think for a minute. The Takeda milestones are $180M total once O is marketed worldwide. Then royalties are paid. All of this is subject to WHEN AND IF Takeda ever decides to remarket O. What has Takeda done?
1. Decided in December 2011 not to commercialize O in Japan.
2. With FDA consultation, agreed to "voluntarily" withdraw O from the US market.
3. Withdrew O's EMA application for approval.
4. Removed O as one of its core products on its webpage.
5. Does not project any O revenues for FY 2013, or beyond.
6. Does not project O approvals as any of its pipeline drugs through 2017.
7. Obtained EMA approval for O pediatric clinical trials to be completed 14 years from now in 2027.
What does AFFY say?
1. Takeda's investigation still appears to be lengthy.
2. Takeda's decision to ever remarket O is highly uncertain.
3. O has a damaged reputation such that it may never be marketable.
What do the pumpers say? You read their posts. You tell me.
I don't know which short hedgefund you work for they let you roam scotfree.
(a) There was no approval in 2011. FDA approval was the first and they decided to use third party to market O in Japan due to Market conditions
(b) There is nothing about it, everything you do about the Drug you'll seek theFDA approval
(c) That is due to their Ongoing investigation, it was known info nothing new
(d) Disclosed in 1st Qtr result itself, nothing new
(e) We are talking about O for Dialysis patients, no other indications. You forget to mention, the trial is STILL ON and those who are taking O are still on trial for the Past 7+ years.
No one cares about what AFFY says. It costs 50 K to run the operation and it will last for another 2 years if needed.
No BK moron as you suggest in the immediate term/ until O results are out!
We are very well aware of the risks involved here, you posted nothing new. Every long is aware of this YOUR NEW NEWS!
I'm waiting for a BUYOUT btw 8-10 without any news in the immediate term, otherwise wil Collect O's royalty.
15-21% royalty is the best option, however TAKEDA will buyout AFFY before that date.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Jagan I can't believe you're still around here. I remember reading post of yours 3 years ago. Back then you believed O would get approved in dialysis only. You also had a lot of thoughts on buyouts or prices I didn't necessarily agree with but when it came down to it you were spot on. It was approved. I think we're in a similar position today. I think looking at the data and what happened and compare it to situations in the past with any other FDA approved drug and I don't see how this is not back on the market by the end of the year at the latest.
Of course they are going to remove O as one of there core products while it is being recalled. That would be stupid to leave it on the webpage. When it is returned it will return to the webpage. Everything they have done to this point is consistent with any recall of a drug and is not out the norm. They are not going to try to get approval for a drug while it is being recalled in another country. The pediatric clinical trials is completely a non issue I don't even know why you would bring that up. The facts are that Takeda as done everything consistent with the recall of a drug. Not only that but you seem to be leaving out 2 of the biggest things they have done.
1. Invested hundreds of millions of dollars in O.
2. Continue to invest millions more in O and cover all cost for AFFY allowing them to not go into bankruptcy.
The only way they receive in return at all in this investment is through writing it off as business expenses and future sales of the drug. It is nonsense to believe that Takeda is not committed to trying to return O to the market. Everything they have done and are doing is consistent with trying to market this drug in the U.S. AMGN's patent does expire in 2014 and ESA's are about the get a lot more competitive. But almost all competitors have similar safety profiles. There is significant risk with all of them. The biggest advantage of O and the reason Takeda is spending millions is because it has a huge advantage with dosing over all other ESA's. It's what makes them stand out and is the reason Frenusius and other dialysis clinics favor them. It's why AFFY was moving past 30 before the deaths. O is a very viable drug. It all comes down to whether O will come back on the market. I believe it will. I want to know why you believe it has little chance of coming back. Has there ever been a situation with a drug with a similar safety profile compared to it's competitors that has been permantely removed. I don't believe so
When the AFFY buyout does not happen, what will you have to say? Tell us now. What will your excuse be? Are you going to admit you were just trying to pump AFFY? Are you just following instructions as a paid pumper? Everyone is virtually certain that AFFY is not going to be bought out, as you say, especially with all the ruinious pending litigation. Why would you post such a thing? Really, what is your motivation? Are you just a blind cheer leader since you are long?
When the AFFY buyout does happen, what will you have to say? Tell us now. What will your excuse be? Are you going to admit you were just trying to short AFFY? Are you just following instructions as a paid basher? Everyone is virtually certain that AFFY is not going to be bought out, as you say, especially with all the ruinious pending litigation. Why would you post such a thing? Really, what is your motivation? Are you just a blind basher leader since you are short?
These buyout posts are nothing new. They have been going on for a long time. Maxdad posted that Fresenius was going to buy AFFY, but when called on how ridiculous it was, he quickly retracted his pump. The AFFY buyout candidates I have personally seen come and go include Baxter, Merck, J&J, Amgen, Frsenius, Roche and the all time favorite Takeda. I call it the "buyer du jour" because the pumpers like to change rumors frequently. I guess it gives them more cache and makes AFFY appear to be more desirable. All pumpers ignore the fact that the lucky purchaser of AFFY also purchases all of its litigation. Just for grins, here is an example from Sierra World, posted on March 18, 2013:
Mission Accomplished_Roche To Buyout Affymax (AFFY) Predicts Sierra World Equity Review. Sierra Told You First!
HEADLINE: Mission Accomplished_Roche To Buyout Affymax (AFFY) Predicts Sierra World Equity Review. Sierra Told You First!
Ok, so today the news came out that AFFY was considering selling itself or filing for bankruptcy, I told everyone this back on March 15th, my sources were spot on! Check back for updates on AFFY as I learn more, I'll post right away but right now it looks like it's Roche who will buyout AFFY in my view!
Better listen to Jagan. He hold AFFY shares at a significant loss. He sold ALL his AFFY shares at $2 (smart) and bought back in at $1.50 (not smart). Jagan hopes for a rebound so he can sell his AFFY to the greater fool as he did before.
Who knows. Maybe the MMs will take fundamentally worthless AFFY shares for another run and Jagan could get lucky. Just make sure you are not left holding the AFFY bag when the end comes. It will not be pretty.