As a American-board certified physician, I believe there is a great potential and chance for O to come back for 2 case incidental death cases. I am long with 10,000 share. What bothers me most is there is no update on the clinical investigation so far. Does anybody know if we have the right to know the progress of the investigation? I am not loosing the confidence of the drug, but of the Affymax management team.
The Affymax management team is The Brenner Group and Affy's President is Wes Rose, who I have spoken with a few times. TBG is a turnaround company and is currently acting in pretty much a caretaker role until the Omontys investigation has been completed and the new path for Affymax is defined. They are 100% MUM on progress and are not actively discussing it (not zero either) with Takeda just so that they will have no conflicts. As I have said since the beginning, this is a BINARY opportunity (win or lose), I believe the probabilities of Omontys being returned are very high (but can not say 100% nor can anyone else) and Affymax has more than enough funds to last years at the current spend rate...all litigation is contingent and really can not play out until the investigation is over!!! So it all hinges on the return of O to the market and one having the patience to see it through until that point in time. I have put my $$$ where my opinion has been for quite a while and have NOT sold a share!!!
I think one of the biggest problems is that we just have no idea when the decision will be made. I really hope it is by the end of the year.....That would make it about 10-11 months since the fall from $16+, and only a little less time from $3. You woul think that would be long enough.......
Technically Takeda is in charge of the investigation. There is very little of Affyamx left, except for a few employees and the Brennar Group who have taken over the restructuring of the company. Having been at the last shareholder meeting I can tell you they are not forthcoming with any information, in fact only the CFO was there no CEO or board members. Some members of the Brennar Group. It depends on the level of communication between Takeda, who is working with the FDA, and the management team of Affymax, such as it is. It is frustrating for sure.
pbjork, As Maxdad has stated above the communication between Takeda and AFFY is zero, in order to avoid any conflicts. Therefore, what is there to report other than TBG awaits notification of the results of the investigation and Takeda's going forward proposal. Reality is exactly as stated by Maxdad and you, with one exception. This process should not be frustrating. It takes time and resources to not only conduct the investigation but to come to an acceptable agreement between Takeda and Fresenius and/or other than Fresenius, if such is possible. I do not believe Takeda would be expending resources and time if they did not deduct that they have a very good chance of restoring O to the marketplace. What will be the relationship with AFFY once this comes about is yet to be seen. Everyone who has purchased, is holding, or contemplating buying should have made Maxdad's and your comments part of their weighted DD. It certainly has been stated multiple times in multiple ways.
Lastly, this is a stock which appears to be subject to a binary event. I get the feeling, maybe incorrectly, that some relate the term "binary" to "happening quickly". Binary should be understood as the indicator is set to neutral. At the yet to be determined moment in time, it will be set to "up" or "down". At that time our investment dollars will travel in the indicated direction. "Down" is less than two floors and "up" may be as much as (?) floors. I continue to hold knowing the process leading up to the binary event is an unknown but that Takeda wants to make money with O. That is a great consolation.