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Affymax, Inc. Message Board

  • godwinpeak godwinpeak Sep 30, 2013 10:29 AM Flag

    Takeda Buyout of AFFY

    Perhaps the greatest pumper lullaby, at least the most repeated, is that Takeda is going to buy AFFY for a price that will make AFFY longs rich. Please AFFY longs, explain why Takeda would want to do that. I have AFFY longs tout a Takeda buyout of between $8 to even $30 per share which values AFFY at $240M to $1.2B.

    I am astonished at how that lullaby causes greed to glaze over rational thinking and induces gullible longs to buy AFFY shares. If anyone ever thinks about a Takeda buyout of AFFY dispassionately, sensibly and rationally, a Takeda buyout at any price makes no sense whatsoever. Just AFFY litigation liabilities alone kills the deal. But longs say O is so valuable and Takeda wants O. If that is true, then all Takeda needs to do is just wait and it can get whatever part of O it does not already own at the lowest price ever, and at a price approved by the AFFY bankruptcy court.

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    • GWP I've just gotta ask...WHAT IS WITH YOUR OBSESSION WITH LULLABIES? My obsession is with your LIES not LULLABIES (which never made any sense in the first place). You really do have more than a few loose screws pal...can't you see that you show these things almost every time you post? SERIOUSLY!!!

      BTW, I have provided (in response to this "Takeda will "never" buy Affymax) NUMEROUS SUBSTANTIVE responses why it would NEVER BE IN THEIR INTERESTS to see Affy go bankrupt and/or to try to take advantage of such. And unlike you I bring 30 PLUS YEARS OF DIRECT INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE to such matters whether you think working for GS and JPM are inferior to whatever krapp you did as a low level ambulance chasing lawyer.

    • Of course 30$ is BS.
      But a range between 5$ and 12$ is very realistic.

      • 1 Reply to vmatulis
      • Is it really? Even a cursory analysis reveals how delusional you are. Between $5 and $12 per share values AFFY at between $187.5M and $450M. What is it that Takeda gets for that price?

        AFFY's only asset is the Takeda $180M milestone/royalties agreement [TRMA]. Takeda, therefore, would pay between $187.5M and $450M to be relieved of its payment obligation under the TRMA. The TRMA is a worldwide agreement, and Takeda long ago decided not to market O in Japan and has withdrawn its European Union application for O approval. So the only market Takeda would have to pay AFFY any monies any time soon would be the US market.

        In the US, O is not being marketed and Takeda needs to prove to the FDA that it has rectified O's patient safety problems before it even can be remarketed Moreover, O has such a damaged reputation that AFFY says O may no longer even be marketable assuming it passes FDA scrutiny. Not only that, but the industry standard medications, used for all CKD patients (not just O's limited market to CKD dialysis patients) have established a wide moat through many years of use with proven safety standards. O's only advantage is once a month dosing which AFFY admits will be seriously undermined when Roche's Mircera (dosed once every 3-4 weeks) enters the US market in mid-2014.

        Under those circumstances it makes no sense whatsoever for Takeda to accelerate all worldwide milestone payments and imply generous royalty payments under the TRMA to a present value of between $187.5M and $450M to buy AFFY as you say. The US milestone payments are just $30M and the rest of the $150M milestones are from other than US markets which are not even on the horizon.

        But wait. If Takeda buys AFFY it also buys AFFY's litigation. The securities class action alone seeks damages of between $431M and $925M damages, i.e. between $11.50 and $24.67 per AFFY share. Then there are the looming products liabilities claims too.

        Your Takeda buyout of AFFY is purely delusional.

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