Rocky, I'm done with the Q board (other than my Q4 forecast later today or tomorrow) as there is just way too much noise there (PS. I'm holding Q long term...years...as I have always been). As for Affymax, truly nothing has changed other than time continues to pass, the Takeda Investigation goes on and Affymax as a shell company awaiting the results of Takeda's investigation is solidly in place with a cleaned up balance sheet, extremely low cash burn rate and way more than enough time to wait out the result of the investigation which I continue to strongly believe restores Omontys to market. I've explained that thesis many times here, but quite simply there are far worse mortality stats on hundreds of drugs that can easily be researched and they are NOT being removed. Takeda is excessively cautious and I still believe that they are navigating whatever needs to be done to keep Fresenius (#1 Dialysis company, at least by size) as their primary distribution channel which will dramatically impact the ultimate value of Affymax. And I'm still completely confident that when Omontys is returned Takeda will complete the acquisition of Affymax in some fashion to significant multiples on current price. This is a totally binary outcome and there is some (very slim in my opinion) chance that there could have been something other than anaphylaxis as the cause of the fatalities under investigation, though I doubt that. Anaphylaxis will NEVER be a basis for withdrawal unless the incidence rate was orders of magnitude greater than what actually occurred.
So to me the risk comes down to only what we can't know at all from the outside (again slim but would be pretty much a wipeout of all but any residual value from Affymax's tax loss carryforward which are significant but do carry issues)...VERSUS a reward of 10 to 20X on current price and perhaps more, again assuming that Fresenius is retained as lead channel for Omontys. I'll report more if there's anything to report!!!