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Affymax, Inc. Message Board

  • maxdaddyo maxdaddyo Nov 6, 2013 4:19 PM Flag

    I think it is time for me to leave here too...

    I provided analysis and information with the best of intentions. I put my own money where my opinions were and continue to hold a sizable position in this "binary" opportunity believing still that when the investigation is complete (whenever that may occur) that shareholders of Affymax will most likely be handsomely rewarded (and that includes me). I never lied, not once, not ever though any of you have been certainly welcome to challenge my opinion, but whatever hard evidence I have provided (and it has been significant) was exactly as I found it. I'm sure there are many here who would love to blame me for their losses and in fact I do blame myself for the 22k loss I took on the 100k shares I sold and my remaining shares are being held because I still do believe that the outcome of this will be what I have said all along.

    If you want to vent your frustrations here are some potential targets for you (in addition to whatever you wish to throw back at me for whatever reasons you may hold me in contempt):

    1. Begin with yourself. If you invest in anything it should NEVER be because someone on a chat board suggested it...By the way I don't think I ever said anyone should buy Affy here, but on the off chance that I did that it would have been inappropriate. One should ALWAYS do their own research and analysis to make investment decisions.

    2. Both Takeda and Affymax have not provided ANYTHING in the way of updates, status or even details on the nature of the investigation. I used my own interpretation that the cause of deaths under investigation were from Anaphylaxis and I stand by my statements that this is (if caught and dealt with quickly) a completely solvable response. I have also stated that the incidence level is well below the mortality threshold of hundreds of drugs still on the market and by itself is no reason for Omontys to not be returned.

    2a. It is a corporation's responsibility to inform shareholders of ALL MATERIAL ACTIVITIES.

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    • Dont worry about these idiots whether longs or shorts. Who ever put their hard earned money in the stock market bases solely on someone else on a MB then they should not blame no one but themselves. Nobody putting no gun on ones head to pull the trigger.

    • Max's, your information has been very helpful and would like for you to consider checking in when something useful come up. Some of us value your insight and information. I sold a block of share awhile back and I am looking to pick a few back up. I still want to see how the story ends. My position has remained the same, not if O has a place but where. I read an article recently on cost. There where to doctors that felt Anaphylaxis was the cause.

    • Classic stuff here.

      Wall Street guy who changes his name all the time comes on to the board. Give y'all the finger and tells you to blame yourself and shame on you for listening to him. He will NEVER admit that he has been WRONG about everything AFFY.

      All this and the chumpfools still love him and give him Thumbs Up. This reveals much to me about our society and our elected representatives whom you call 'Leaders'. Thank you.

    • victim card! he changed his alias so many times you can't find the lies or demands that you buy now at 1.50 to 2.00 for 2000% profit.

      now his known alias Nikon begging himself to come back in new thread.

    • Thanks David, you did what you could for people (I mean the people who truly believe in O) in this board, provided your best knowledge and info, people shouldn't ask for more. Me and my husband is expecting to make a donation to TX Children Hospital with or without making money on AFFY.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • I disagree! You don't have to post on any regular basis but tutor/mentor according to issues needing further insight and as you deem necessary. The thumbs up is for the ongoing efforts and comments within, NOT the subject line. Jim

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • now it finally comes full circle... ur abandoning the people who trusted u and counted on u...

    • 2a. It is a corporation's responsibility to inform shareholders of ALL MATERIAL ACTIVITIES and that hasn't happened, including when I have had conversations with Affymax's acting management. So if you want to vent on causality give Takeda and/or Affymax management a call or write them a letter and let them know that you are legally entitled to this material information and that the lack of full disclosure has been highly detrimental to your investment in Affymax.

      3. There has been a relentless campaign by bashers, shorts, hedge funds, et al for months that undoubtedly has deterred some from investing (lucky for them I guess), but more than anything has cast doubts based on partial truths and outright lies. Many (including myself) have spent countless hours debunking their relentless pursuit of abject fear on the part of Affymax shareholders. I personally have never given any credence to these manipulations, but I have no doubt that they have affected (even perhaps subconsciously) the attitudes of Affymax shareholders that frequent this board.

      Finally, I have made my case way too many times for the Omontys return probabilities, industry history of withdrawals, Affymax's financial wherewithall to hang on until resolution of the investigation and what I believe to be the most likely source of the fatalities (anaphylaxis which if dealt with properly should NEVER lead to fatalities). I've also stated that if it is something other than anaphylaxis that caused these fatalities (these patients are inherently very sick people), then that is something totally outside the range of anyone on the outside's field of vision. I personally don't think this is the case but have always said that this is the big "IF" that could end Omontys.

      This all leaves all of us with frustration on both how long this is taking and a lack of specifics provided by either A or T in letting us know what we have needed to know about the risks of our investment in Affy.

      • 3 Replies to maxdaddyo
      • "This all leaves all of us with frustration on both how long this is taking..."

        Yes, if you're not prepared for that.

        "...and a lack of specifics provided by either A or T in letting us know..."

        That one, absolutely.

      • Did you ever contact Takeda USA and if so did they actually answer any questions or give you the run around? Just curious. I too have felt this stock has been manipulated, re the 4 SA articles by AE who is short the stock. However since this does exist in a news vacuum with no updates, the path of least resistance has been to the downside. The fact that AFFY has no control over its own destiny, it is reliant on how quickly Takeda is able to come to some resolution one way or another of the investigation. I guess the question is do they resolve it favorably before AFFY runs out of money.

      • Last point...The financial potential (from when/if Omontys is returned) was available for everyone here to review and I represented it exactly as it was spelled out in the amended agreement between Takeda and Affymax as follows:

        1. There is $180 million in Milestone Payments that would be do after Omontys is returned and against very specific events. This equates to approx. $4.50 per share.

        2. There is a detailed schedule of Royalty Payments which are COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT of the Milestone Payments and are to be paid in perpetuity (at a rate ranging from about 13% to over 20% based on the geography of the sales). I even converted these royalties to revenue streams based on various levels of market share that could potentially be taken from Amgen, and it didn't take much market share for these royalties to become a very substantial revenue stream to shareholders.

        3. There has been a lot of debate on this board about who owns what. Affymax OWNS the intellectual property of Omontys and all related IP. They have provided (in the Amended agreement) Takeda with complete rights to use, market and sell this IP as they see fit, but the legal ownership remains an Affymax asset until it is bought out.

        4. I have and still do believe that based on 1 & 2 above that when/if Omontys is returned that these 2 revenue sources will be discounted back to net present value, adjusted for remaining risks and repackaged into a buyout by Takeda. There have been all kinds of estimates on what all this is worth and I have always believed that it is at least 10X and perhaps as much as 20X and I stated that (I believe) when the stock was trading at around $1.30 give or Low Teens to Mid Twenties in terms of dollars per share...TOTALLY PREDICATED ON OMONTYS BEING RETURNED.

        5. And I have said that I believe that the big hitch has always been the negotiations between Takeda and Fresenius on who and how responsibilities for the fatalities would be apportioned.

    • Well Done...we know what's in your heart and whoever accusing you for their loss it is not on you...Everybody can lost or Gain that's a natural issue.This is totally belongs to our own act which we all did our own DD's. TOo easy to blame someone but it's happens what can we do...THis is not betrayal...

    • Why go? Many appreciate your DD. Stay the course like the rest of us longs, Max.

0.093+0.0200(+1.67%)Nov 30 3:24 PMEST