AFFY longs boast that O is a blockbuster ESA that will generate hundreds of millions and more than a billion in sales in short order resulting in AFFY being a 10 bagger very quickly. I do not agree, but let us assume that O actually will be a very successful ESA. The more Takeda considers O to be a huge commercial success, the more Takeda should be willing to take its time to bring O to market. All Takeda needs to do is to wait until the expiration of the 2nd Q of 2014 when AFFY runs out of cash and has no alternative but to seek BK protection. Takeda then buys that part of O that it does not already own, namely AFFY's only asset - the Takeda $180M milestone/royalties agreement - at a bankruptcy court approved price.
Takeda saves all the milestone/royalties payments - an immediate, safe return just for waiting. AFFY shareholders are left with the litigation liabilities and holding the bag. Don't think it isn't possible.
No matter how much longs hate gwp, they could save ton of money if they listened to him and sold, he can be right about O or wrong, no one knows, but he's 100% right about selling AFFY till this second
"...but he's 100% right about selling AFFY..."
Actually not. When it was about a buck and a half, i think a bit more, he was calling for a bounce back to $2 orchestrated by the mm's before back down to sub-$1. Instead it just kept falling. Not the point though, neither yours nor mine. The point is will omontys succeed or fail. Dr doom was right for a bit. It got bad, very bad, but not as bad as he was predicting,. He hasn't been right since while the stock market's risen from the depths to record highs. Affy's gotten bad, very bad, but not yet as bad as the basher's predicting. We still have to see if it will or if omontys comes back.
Once either of those end points is reached then you can make the call as to right or wrong. Otherwise, anyone calling for a drop on any stock you can name, after about a buck and a quarter downer you'd have to say we should've listened.
Anyway since I'm breaking rules let me once again inquire from the all knowledgeable GeedoubleUPee.
Are BlackRock and Fidelity part of the class? And what about the rest of the funds who owned 80% of Affy?
Maybe its some jerk who bought 1700 shares at $11. Is that the guy the judge is awarding a gazillion dollars?
What is the size of the class? What happens to this class of your's if Takeda succeeds? Do you reimburse all those you convinced to sell?
By the way, shouldn't you have titled your post "The affy short conundrum" and then have listed the problems the shorts can wind up facing, including totally losing their behinds if they're not adequately hedged? I've got the old proverbial limit to my loss here. Yo've got the old proverbial sky's the limit loss if you don't move your keister as soon as/if the good news of affy's return comes out. I for sure would rather be in my position than yours. Helps me sleep at night when i want to.
"All Takeda needs to do is to wait until the expiration of the 2nd Q of 2014 when AFFY runs out of cash and has no alternative but to seek BK protection."
You sure you want to stick by that statement? It's good to finally see a definite from you, not a maybe or a my opinion. It's also good to see a lawyer go out on a limb, giving out advice, if it's truly a lawyer, that it should know is wrong at best, misleading at worst. Or is that vice versa?