The longer it takes for Takeda to complete its investigation, the closer AFFY is to having to file bankruptcy. They are cash strapped, and the only injection of cash comes from royalty payments. In order to avoid filing bk, they can sell a portion of their rights on the patent drug omonty at a big discount to come up with funds.
In order to get Omonty back on to the market, Takeda has to file their investigative findings, and find a solution to improve the safety profile. Then the FDA has to decide if its sufficient info on the first filed attempt, or will Takeda have to refile after addressing any more concerns by FDA. We can't come up with a time line, because Takeda is not releasing any info for the longest time. Thus the above bk option is not entirely wrong, their is a possibility of it coming to fruition if AFFY can not get funds because the investigation is taking longer than the amount of cash remaining.
As for Omonty coming back to market? Even if it does, AFFY is not worth more than $4. Royalty is based on sales and milestones based on those sales. Omonty may never even sell or sell poorly due to the negativity surrounding its name because of the recall. It's a different question if what the drug addresses was the only one on the market, but their are other options on market to rival Omonty.
Not recommending to buy or sell. Do your own due diligence.
What's an omonty? They can get funds without selling a portion of their rights, so you'er off on that one as well. If the story even play out that long before the conclusion's reach. The negativity of its name will disappear rapidly if the drug works. If it works it'll work at least as well as anything amgen's got, if not better. And, as has been noted over and over, then over again, once a month administration vs multiple times a week. Right, we can't come up with a timeline, so why are you wasting time guessing over a 90 cents max profit on the short side. Not even near a good try. Everyone here knows the arguments by now. Try some other place to ply your wares but don't quit your day job.