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Mattel, Inc. Message Board

  • Antasia_x Antasia_x May 17, 2006 4:00 AM Flag

    Did you see CARS during American Idol ?

    Yep, Disney is shelling out the big bucks to market �Cars�.
    Great advertising during "American Idol's Final Three" !!!

    AND

    Every one of those cute little Cars has a nearly identical version "Made by Mattel"

    AND

    They are showing up in stores all over the country !!!

    Ooooh Baby, Baby Baaa-by !!!
    (Makes you want to sing like an American Idol, yes? ;-)

    "I think we found a Catalyst $$$$$"

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    • Go ahead, ignore the data and soon you may be on the short side of a short squeeze

      As you mentioned, institutions own plenty of shares of Mattel

      Hmmm, let�s ignore evidence that institutions are still accumulating

      Hmmm, ignore the fact that Disney and Pixar�s �Cars� is releasing this Friday and
      It will do much to promote Mattel�s new line of �Cars�
      (Designed to match the ones in the film).

      Hmmm, ignore the fact that Superman returns releases later this month and
      Mattel�s super toys are showing up in toy stores and grocery stores all over the country.

      Hmmm, ignore the quality of Mattel�s new toys and the fact that
      Many have been selling quite well since early April.

      Hmmm, ignore that Disney is spending a fortune to promote �Cars� and that
      Mattel has the best toys, and the most floor space, of all �Cars� toys on the market.

      Yep, keep playing with your Barbies and ignore the cute new �Cars� that everyone else is playing with.

      Hmmm, Mattel may just possibly have the best new toy line of the year and you�d like to ignore it.

      Boy oh boy, don�t say you weren�t warned !!!

      See you at $20 and Beyond

      Much sooner than you expect

    • you_are_entitled_to_my_opinion you_are_entitled_to_my_opinion Jun 5, 2006 10:18 PM Flag

      <<IMHO, the best sign of intuitional accumulation came last Thursday as institutions indicated strong interest in purchasing shares of Mattel and backed it up with 60% of the day�s total trade volume. Mattel closed that day at the highest level it�s been in weeks.>>

      I guess I fail to see your rationale for "institutional accumulation."

      On the day you cite, total shares traded was just a bit above average. Institutions currently own 89.7% of MAT's outstanding shares. If institutions purchased only 60% of the day's volume on 6/1, retail investors were accumulating, not the institutions.

      The 40% retail purchases (which are usually on the wrong side) were probably executed by some of the people on this board that spend 40-50 hours a week measuring each retail outlet's planogram, do store traffic counts, in-stocks, out of stocks, cash register line audits and store manager debriefings.

      BTW the current S&P recommendation is still �Hold.� They feel the stock is currently slightly undervalued. S&P assigns a 12 month target price of $17.00.

      Yawn.

    • beprepared4infinityandbeyond beprepared4infinityandbeyond Jun 5, 2006 9:09 PM Flag

      Last week a few of the people here argued about block sizes and their meanings. A few investors refuse to accept that intuitions are accumulating (assuming end of day run ups to be painting of the tape). I can appreciate the confusion because institutions are almost always moving into and out of small blocks.

      IMHO, the best sign of intuitional accumulation came last Thursday as institutions indicated strong interest in purchasing shares of Mattel and backed it up with 60% of the day�s total trade volume. Mattel closed that day at the highest level it�s been in weeks.

      http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=MAT&range=0&mg
      p=20060601&i=3&hdate=20060601&x=9&y=10


      The shorts here don�t want to acknowledge that �Cars� and �Superman Returns� should add significantly to Mattel�s second quarter and full year results, yet smart money appears to be already placing their bets on Mattel.

      I plan to be hold for the next several months and see how things go. If Mattel starts seeing record toy sales then I may stick around for the next year, or two, or more.

      IMHO, Mattel has created one of the best toy lines I�ve seen in years and Disney is promoting �Cars� better than any Pixar film has ever been promoted. All of this is good for Mattel.

      I believe in the $20 price targets and I suspect some of the institutions do too.

      Congratulations to the employees at Mattel for creating a great line of �Cars�

      Congratulations to Disney & Pixar for creating a great film: �Cars�

      Let�s hope box office success leads to success for everyone

      Here�s To Infinity and Beyond

      Or at least $20 and Beyond

      May all your dreams come true

    • Hey e9racer,

      Funny how your name includes "racer" yet you at betting against the Disney/Pixar blockbuster film that is loaded with race cars.

      Did you see the Jun $17.50 call options flying off the shelves today?

      Buyers see a stock that could go from flat-line to $20... Faster than Lightning McQueen can go from zero to sixty!

      Thanks again for the cheap options

      Whoever doesn�t agree that Cars will be a blockbuster toy series for Mattel is in denial and has not done their homework. Mattel could/should easily break $20 this year just from the strength of the sales generated by this new toy line.

      Thank you to Bob Iger, Steve Jobs and John Lasseter for sharing Cars with Mattel !!!

      See you at �$20 and Beyond�

    • Nice, you�ve sold your shares for $17.80 and took $2.80 of that in November of last year.

      Now you have $15 per share tied up until January of next year.

      Sure you could buy back your options near $2 and walk with $0.80 in profits

      Or you could wait until Cars releases next month and see if

      Steve Jobs, Bob Iger and John Lasseter can give new life to Mattel

      If they do, then you can sit and watch your options head back towards a value of $2.80 or you can cover for a small profit.

      Regardless you are betting against a strong wind and standing in front of the Disney/Pixar train.

      Your money is tied up and your maximum upside potential is 18%.

      I am taking a much bigger risk than you, my downside potential is 100% yet I see an upside potential of 150% or more.

      Time will tell who is correct, yes?

      AP news: �Among the coming summer films that have released the most merchandise are Disney-Pixar's "Cars," Walt Disney's "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," and Warner Bros.' "Superman Returns." Sony Pictures'�

      Mattel has toys for all of these

      AP news: �"Last year, it was all about 'Star Wars,'" said Ernie Speranza, chief marketing officer at KB Toys Inc. This summer, he's betting that three movies -- "Cars," "Superman" and the "Pirates" movie -- "will be better than one."�

      Mattel isn�t the only company looking forward to strong summer sales

      AP news: �Officials from KB Toys and Toys "R" Us Inc. report strong early sales of the movie-related goods, which started to appear in stores in early April. And the momentum should pick up when the films make their theatrical debut over the next few weeks. What should help is that the movies are expected to attract diverse audiences.�

      Oops, that kind-of blows away your idea that �it's simply ludicrous� that Mattel could have a great second quarter assisted by a June release of �Disney & Pixars newest animated film CARS�

      I understand that success at the box office doesn�t guarantee success at retailers, but I have done my homework which is why I purchased a significant number of in-the-money Jan07 call contracts.

      Mattel could quite possibly blow away their 18 month high and head into the mid $20�s

      If they do then you will be holding the bag on your $15 strikes until someone takes your shares next January.

      Good luck with that one� At least you got more than $2 per share for your contracts.

    • Would you like to know why so many investors are willing to buy up January 2007 call options?

      The answer is simple: Mattel may not get their act together in time to fully capitalize off the June 9th release of Disney/Pixar�s Cars and all of the great free advertising that goes with it, but by the time the associated DVD releases in Q4 of this year, Mattel will have all of its production facilities geared up to handle the demands of the fourth quarter holidays.

      This quarter Mattel might blow out the numbers yet it depends on supply chain capabilities.

      By fourth quarter all issues will have been worked out and Mattel should easily blow away the numbers.

      Cars is a very powerful film and it is going to be much bigger than the anyone currently expects.

      The retail opportunities are enormous!

      IMHO, Mattel has a golden opportunity and so do new investors.

    • Oops, a small correction to my prior post.

      I didn�t buy the 6230 open Jan 07, $15 calls.

      Today I only purchased 100 contracts. Of those, 53 were purchased at $2 and the remaining 47 were purchased at $2.02. I�m not sure why the second purchase isn�t showing up on some real time tickers yet I do have a confirmation of their purchase.

    • e9racer

      I am now the proud owner of those Jan 7, $15 calls and I must assume that you are the one who sold them because your post popped up soon after I purchased them.

      I can guarantee that I bought those contracts because I have seen Disney/Pixar�s newest film and because I have seen children play with Mattel�s new Cars and I have a strong feeling that we will see Mattel break $20 this year.

      BTW, if you really want to short Mattel then you shouldn�t be selling calls; you should be buying puts.

      FYI, between now and next January someone is going to exercise your calls and sell the shares at a much higher price (and the calls will trade hands many, many times :).

      Cars is going to be a huge success for Disney and Pixar and Mattel

      Of course, these are all predictions just like you predicted that the Jan 07 calls will work in favor of a short seller.

      By the way, I intend to sell the calls after Mattel breaks $20 and I expect to make at least 150% profit on my investment.

    • It happened again last night !!!

      To repeat my prior post:

      Yep, Disney is shelling out the big bucks to market �Cars�.
      Great advertising during "American Idol's Final Three" !!!

      AND

      Every one of those cute little Cars has a nearly identical version "Made by Mattel"

      AND

      They are showing up in stores all over the country !!!

      Ooooh Baby, Baby Baaa-by !!!
      (Makes you want to sing like an American Idol, yes? ;-)

      "I think we found a Catalyst $$$$$"

    • The case for shorting Mattel

      Alan Farley of TheStreet.com has a new personal account for shorting stocks. He recognizes weakness in the Ken and Barbie toy lines, he sees a perfect head and shoulders pattern and believes that this is a sure sign of a pending down draft. He has told his readers to watch for a downward gap towards the twelve month low of $14.75, followed by a bounce and suggested that �any bounce at that support level can be sold aggressively for an eventual breakdown that sends the stock into single digits�

      The case for owning Mattel

      The twelve month low is $14.75 and the five year low is $14.25 (Sept 2001). On the other hand, the fifteen month high is $21.64 (March 2005). The longs see approximately $1 of downside if the shorts are right and $6.50 of upside if they are right. They have also seen and incredible amount of support near the $15 price point followed by multiple upward bounces.

      The longs have one more ace up their sleeve. Disney and Pixar have teamed up to create one of the most exciting films of 2006. The Disney/Pixar film Cars releases on June 9th. In preparation for this release Disney has partnered with Mattel to create a series of associate products. Forget Barbie and Ken! If you�ve been to the local toy store then you probably already know that Cars are going to be the hottest selling toys of 2006 and that most the associated toys are made by �Mattel� !!!

      In summary

      The �shorts have at most $1 of potential gain from today�s price� and the �longs see 40% potential upside�.

      The �shorts are betting against Ken and Barbie� and the �longs are betting with Disney/Pixar Cars�

      The �shorts are betting on Alan Farley�s expertise on reading charts� and
      The �longs are betting on Bob Iger, Steve Jobs and John Lasserter�s newest creation�

      The �shorts are betting that Mattel will drop towards a ten year low� and
      The �longs are betting that Mattel will soar back towards a 15 month high�

      IMHO, one should never bet against Steve Jobs, Bob Iger and John Lasseter when they are about to release a blockbuster film that will in-all-likelihood sell billions of dollars of merchandise over the next several years.

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