Average long term VPF's are going to be $750. Average long term VPF count per screen is about 14-14.5. Realistic other content revenue per screen is about $1,500.
Do the math - Average revenue per screen max per year is about $12,000. Studios will only continue to pay VPF's for a max of 10 years on any given install. (That's the DCI rated life of the install.) After that, who will pay? Who will replace?
Exhibitors already will be paying Christie $2,250+ per year for service - They aren't going to be interested.
It will cost $360M to put in 4,000 screens by mid 2007. That works out to a total ROI of $500M over 10 years on a $360M investment. The asset value after 10 years is nil - the stuff will be obsolete and/or worn out.
Total 10 year average return is (140/360)/10 or about 3.1% net per year.
Remember - that's the best case!!!!!
Do you really want to go there? If so, then PUMP up the volume!!! This stock is gonna need it.
The website went up when Goldwater joined, and hasn't been updated with specific models. If you are so concerned, why dont you email Goldwater, I left his email address. Part of the agreement of all the studios was that the movies would be released for only "DCI-Compliant" cinema systems, including Disney. And Disney provided the first VPF's.
"supply feature films from Walt Disney Pictures and Touchstone Pictures to DCI-compliant digital projection systems to be deployed by Christie/AIX."
Again, if you are so concerned, email Goldwater and I am sure he will provide the specific model.
"will be" doesn't mean they are currently. You may be satisfied with marketing quotes but I would like to know who certified them and the company should be able to show a copy of their certificate of compliance. IF they are not compliant yet, who is going to implement the field upgrades to the deployed systems to bring them into compliance, this may have significant cost impacts, especially if there are hundreds or thousands of units in the field.
"Each system will be compliant to the DCI Specifications V 1.0 released on July 20, 2005."
" The latest generation Christie 2K DLP-Cinema� Projector for each screen in your theatre."
Maybe this guy (firstname.lastname@example.org)
can give a specific model, but I am satisfied with the above info. (Not that I had any doubt.)
As far as I can tell, there is no certified DCI compliant systems yet. Check out www.dcinematoday.com on the left side there is a link for all the DCI compliant servers, click on it. Please show me on Christys website where they say there projector is DCI compliant-if they were they most certainly would advertise it wouldn't you think? Seems like the more systems that get installed without being certified, the more field rework there will be. Maybe the upgrade is part of their deal with the manufactuers, either way it is going to be expensive for someone.
In response to your comment - "The only costs are for satelite dishes (but this is part of the rollout/per screen cost - I believe) as the upload facility already is paid for (Fibresat in LA)."
See statement from 10Q
We anticipate that we will experience an increase in our capital expenditures consistent with the anticipated growth in our operations, infrastructure and personnel.
You are someone that has been here for awhile. Are you kidding, being an @ss, or dumb as a stack of bricks with this question?
"Are the systems installed DCI compliant"
The CEO of AIX/Christie (Chuck Goldwater) was the the CEO of Digital Cinema Iniative (DCI). This was the biggest seller for me on AIX's story.
"Christie/AIX will provide exhibitors with a full range of DCI-compliant hardware and software including Christie's leading-edge CP2000 DLP"
I can answer one question, and think I know the answer to another.
The theater gets a fair market value purchase option for the equipment at the end of the 10-year term. (It will probably be obsolete then anyway.)
I believe that the PR announcements have claimed DCI compliance.
Pundit, I told you to revise your numbers to something more appealing to the posters on this board, they don't want to hear any contrary opinions.
Perhaps we should put together a list of questions to ask Bud on the next conference call, I'll start. Some of these they may not answer but it will be interesting to hear their response.
How may movies have been delivered by satellite by AIX?
What does the schedule look like for the next three months for digital product from the studios?
Are the systems installed DCI compliant, if not what is the expected cost to upgrade them to compliance if any?
What is the VPF fee paid by the studios, is it constant or does it scale (up/down) with time?
Who ownes the equipment at the end of the 10-year period, is there a exhibitor buy out option, if so how much?
How much alternative content or advertising delivery fees have been recognized to date?
As stated previously I am long this stock until after show west.
If there is no discussion, why look at a message board?
From the NY Times in Sept. 2005:
"Theater owners pay roughly $10,000 toward the $85,000 cost of converting each auditorium. The balance is recovered, typically over 10 years, from the movie studios, which pay 'virtual print fees.'
These fees ... start at around $1,000 for each copy of a movie delivered to a theater."
This corroborates whipperone's figures. How accurate they are I am not sure.
Whipperone, what makes you so sure of your figures?