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Life Time Fitness, Inc. Message Board

  • mn_vestor mn_vestor Feb 28, 2008 11:24 PM Flag


    I've taken a bath on this stock over the past 4 months. I'll be the first to admit it. I wonder if any of the bashers on this board actually have a short position or just like to talk sh*t. There's been some conversation about the board ousting BA. I think it's an absolutely terrible idea. BA's personal life is at best questionable, but let's face it, he's the engine that makes LTM run. Without BA's leadership Life Time is another Gold's, Bally's or 24 Hour. This business model is a proven winner and just because the stock price has dropped 50% over the past 4 months doesn't mean LTM has failed. Growing 15% in a recession in this industry is beyond impressive in my mind. This thing may drop to 20, who knows? Bottom line is that the stock market is highly irrational and overreactionary. LTM should have never been $65 4 months ago and it shouldn't be $30 right now. If BA ever does get ousted, I will sell my stock because this guy is a visionary in the industry and needs to stay.

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    • I've worked with Mr. Market for 22 years.
      he is never irrational.
      usually the participants cant keep up with him, and when they finally do, its the... Ohhhhhh so thats what he knew.
      Duh... no wonder.
      So ask an intelligent question, what does Mr. Market know that you dont, or WONT accept as truth.

    • the reason is Mr. Market is irrational.

      Only intelligent questions please.

    • Said it before, say it again: Look at Bally ten years ago... packed to the brim with a million locations. Health/fitness has rapid growth/decline cycles. LTM promoters were probably the same ones cheering on Bally's before it plunged.

      LTM was smart and got into markets where they would have no competition (yes, smart). But watch what happens when LA Fitness and some other guys start creeping in... LA's in MN are doing very well, and are planning to open 11 more, and are WAY lower in price compared to LTM.

      With their enormous debt, I'm not sure how LTM can handle trimming their dues down and plan to pay off these megamillion supercenters.

    • well, explain;
      the clubs were packed, and still are- yet the stock is less than half its value in less than a year.

    • Has anyone figured out who "Harry Ass Wild" is??
      He types like Bahram talks so that could be one guess...
      but he also wants to spend some alone time with BA so that might rule the first guess out...then again the egomaniac Akradi might love himself so much that is just might still be him
      HarryAssWild only hops on this board when he wants to cheer lead so it obviously someone that works for, or is scared of BA....or worse yet - both. Only those two kind of people are still in the Rah Rah phase with this stock.
      LTM (Life Time) had its time - and its now over. With leadership shifting from Bahram to Gerend, Zweifel and the good ol' boys (as LTF insiders call them) the stock will at best stay in the low 30's. The days of 50's and above are gone for good.
      As for the sales tactics reviewed on this same chat - has anyone researched the background of the "National Sales Director," Shane Fleming?? Google is your friend - use it. It will answer any/all questions re: the Sales practices that have come to the forefront over the past 3 to 4 years. Sniff...sniff.. Hard to run a sales engine when your nose is always dirty!!!

    • I'm not angry with anyone other than my impatience to buy too soon. I will average into this stock in low 30's, which to me, is a good investment.

    • Have talked to a few people who left LTM and went to LA Fitness... And have never been happier. BA's glory days will soon be over.

    • Krusty, I'm going to have to cry BS on this one. Don't take offense, but what factor was in play that you knew how to call the market short in 2nd half of 2007 and then go to cash for 2008? The SP500 hit around 1550 in July, then bounced off of 1400 in August and back up to new highs until November. So you are saying you went short with less than a 10% correction on SP500, held a short position when it rode back up, covered and went to cash in 2008 to avoid the 20% correction we now see? Amazing!

      I also went to 50% cash, but not after I took a 12% haircut. No one gets it exactly right and no one will call the bottom right on this one either. The next confirmed uptrend could be a head-fake before 30% down. Who can tell?

    • Yes, and my p&*ss'd off-factor grows, but not just for LTM, all my portfolio. Stock market has been a black hole for my $$ lately.

    • From the Annual Report: "Our membership growth of 12.5% was down from a membership growth rate of 23.8% in 2006 primarily due to our anniversary of the acquisition of seven leased centers in July 2006, our strategy to reduce memberships in centers where memberships exceed our target capacity and the effects of a slower economy in the fourth quarter."

      Talk to any of the sales guys in the clubs where they were supposed to "reduce memberships through increased dues." Never happened. Quotas stayed the same after dues increases. If you know anyone inside sales on a personal level, ask them.

      It's illegal to lie in an SEC filing, right?...

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