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Southwest Bancorp Inc. Message Board

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 12, 2011 3:40 PM Flag

    Stock behavior

    suggests that something bad is on the horizon. I can't understand how this is hitting all-time lows on small volume even as the market is surging back from the recession fear. Trading 35% below net cash? Something is not right with this picture. Either the financials for this bank are wrong or there is some bad news in the offing that we aren't aware of. Any plausible explanations?

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    • < Any plausible explanations? >

      you've done no DD on this ticker. Do some and post what level of write-offs you see transpiring over next 18 mo.

      compare the NPL + OREO to total loans to other sickly banks trading at massive discounts - not forgetting OKSB is a tar(p) baby.

      unlike many banks, OKSB doesn't take a write off when loan hits OREO or non-accrual - instead waits until the thing is actually sold - don't forget to factor that in.

      OKSB don't do CC and little by way of roadshows. Funds are left in the dark and now you've bridged $5.00 look for them to dump in droves (many have mandatory rules forbidding penny-stocks within their portfolios).

      I suspect the trading behavior you see is that of funds off-loading into retail to the extent they are able. Remember, institutions hold the vast majority of shares (yes?) and retail speculators quite small.

      Plus, you will have mandatory margin calls (as many/most brokerages don't allow equity of issues under $5 to be part of the overall portfolio computation).

      Cheers. V

16.48+0.05(+0.30%)Dec 19 4:00 PMEST

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