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Southwest Bancorp Inc. Message Board

  • highbeta13 highbeta13 Dec 14, 2011 7:37 PM Flag

    Stock will be up 50% tomorrow.

    Still trading at less than 50% of tangible and now they have basically no NPA's and a DTA the size of the moon...can make 90 cents next year and will pay 0 taxes forever.

    Stock probably runs to 7 very quickly.

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    • Don't forget, this thing is a TAR-p-Baby and with the firesale big loss, their ratios are going to hit the skids. Think of it this way, they got 33 cents on the dollar when hopefuls might have hoped for 45 to 48. An additional 15 cents would have meant about 45 Million.

      How many shares to raise 45 million vs how many currently outstanding. Now calculate your beloved earnings per share.

      That extra 45M could have been used to pay down TARP - thanks to the fire sale, its gone.

      In the past, OKSB has shown little regard for the common shareholder when it comes to raising capital at whatever price. You'll see ...

      Take a look at the percent of insider ownership - pitiful. They have little vested interest protecting the common. This is a gambler stock where when times are good, those high priced loans continue to pay - but when economy/tide turns - as Warren B. says, you'll see who isn't wearing shorts (OKSB).

      Also, check the OKSB powerpoint presentations and you'll see they still haven't turned the corner in terms of higher and higher amounts of loans turning sour.

      Anyone that follows TARP stocks knows that ones that continue to improve and current with TARP dividend payments (but relatively unable to repay TARP balance out of remaining earnings) are selling at 1/2 tangible book. Considering the amount of tangible book wiped out ... the reason to buy is the hope the DTA will be worth something someday - which is the same song sung by a host of banks in the 50% crowd.

      Dump it and buy a management that cares.

      Rickster, its time you step down.

      Cheers. V

      • 2 Replies to Victoriya2
      • Not sure where your "they go 33 cents on the dollar" figure comes from? Statement indicates sold $300 million for $100 loss, sounds like they got 66 cents on the dollar/. The bigger question is that they started with about 480 million of poor assets this quarter and if the assets sold were the "best" then big troble awaits. If remaining 200 million of trobled assets are better then their upside looks significant.
        Time will tell
        Good investing/long OKSB

      • Dear Moron,
        They'll do 90 cents now with no provisioning, npa's go to 1.5%, capital ratio's still huge, and tangible book still at 9.75. And they'll now have a DTA the size of the moon which they can add back now that they are profitable.

        Please sell me your stock.

    • will the price be up ...

      everyone knew the loan sale was underway.

      everyone knew the sale would take place in that even a crummy loan with less than 2% chance of being paid off has value.

      question is, how badly did this sale miss investors' expectations and at what point will analysts drink the kool-aid and begin to believe OKSB mngt worthy of anything more than a sell.

      Besides, if this stock was a double, you would have seen the Rickster's wife back in the market accumulating shares.

      Cheers. V

    • < Stock probably runs to 7 very quickly. >

      Let's see - OKSB wiped away how much tangible book when PRSP and other well run southwest banks sport pristine balance sheets.

      The loan sale was a disaster price-wise. They got 33 cents on the dollar and that's after the write-down. This was either a fire sale or indicative of a pitiful LTV.

      The big question is, why buy a messed up mngt and lenders when they continue to book crum-ola loans - (as compared to their peers).

      This is a travesty. You simply can't point to the economy of TX & OK and say they weren't at fault.

      < can make 90 cents next year >

      no they won't - not if their regulators pull in their reigns on issuing the crappy high interest loans on speculative commercial RE undertakings.

      It's as if you are watching a poker player that over the past years has continued to wash out and then you watch him blow half his bank account paying off a loan shark and say to yourself - "well, he now has no outstanding loans to anyone this will affect his play and he will be successful."

      Cheers. V

16.93+0.06(+0.36%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT