Nice attempt to start some reasonable discussion. Anyway, I will make a simple statement. The time to buy CRAY was under 2, or even under 3, when it was being given away. At 7, I sold covered calls on most of my position. I think CRAY has everything you might like in a potential winner -- clean balance sheet, strong and expanding niche, reasonably good management. I find some of the same qualities in ARAY and REGN as well. CRAY is a five-bagger already from the lows. That is the problem for new investors. The takeaway is basically this: develop a group of knowledgeable people who share their ideas on stocks and be on top of everything. Then you won't be late at the party as you might well be on CRAY. That said, I think CRAY can go higher.
If you can answer this question accurately, you can determine how high cray can go: how much 2009 revenue will be generated by (50,000+)istanbul? Kragen and Jaguar have already firmly lined up behind this upgrade in Q309, who else will follow suit and while they upgrade to istanbul how much new memory, new seastar2(at all), HD... and the revenue is... $50m -$150m ???
The moment I stumbled onto Cray a few weeks ago, I immediately realized that I was late to the party. So, the question for me has been whether I'm too late. I haven't bought any shares yet, because I have not yet answered this question to my own satisfaction, and because my natural instinct is to avoid buying shares in a company that has recently gone up a lot.
At the moment, my general assessment is that Cray is probably still a decent bargain at the current price, but not nearly as much of a bargain as it was when it was below $2.