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Old Republic International Corporation Message Board

  • archman8201 archman8201 Jul 1, 2005 4:30 PM Flag

    2005 - A Good Year


    I just had to post, for I am a long term buy and hold investor & a long term holder of ORI.
    Today was a good day for my 8 stock focus portfolio.
    Up another .75% today bringing 2005 up to 5% positive return for the year vs the sad indexes. I am hoping to bring my 15 yr "annualized" portfolio return to over 20% by the end of this year from the 18% annualized that I had going into this year.
    Why am i posting this? To prove that buy and hold still works. It works even more now, for the media (especially that joke of a network CNBC) has been on a crusade to turn folks into traders not investors. It is comical to see them using the word "investor" and at the same time be talking about trading, short term targets, or CNBC's favorite segment "making money now". Hey CBNC, forget about making money now, how about making money for the long term!!!
    Ofcourse now that their house circus clown Cramer is on the loose, things will only get worse. The sad part is that people are barking up the wrong tree. It is a known fact that for every one trader that does well, 100 traders lose money, if not go completely broke. It is a fact. The media is doing everything it can to stimulate interest in the market and make it look "exciting". Same with all the online brokerages.
    People might think i sound corny, but for many years i have followed the teachings of Buffet and Graham. You know what?? It really works. You know what is even better? You can count on very few people following it because of the weak-mindedness of people who feel the need to "get rich quick". Look at GOOG. I dont own it, but congrats to those that have done well in it. You know what, for every one person that sells near the top of its run (yes there will be a top and a huge fall) there will be 100 people that bought in at the top and will lose 50% or more of their investment.(If not all of it).
    For years, i have seen a few very smart folks post on this board, and I look forward to hearing other "investors" talk about their feelings.
    Occasionally we get a social mistfit drop by because their mother has cut off their allowance, but they usuall get bored after awhile.
    Re: ORI, some might think this is a very boring stock that does nothing. I like it that way. It attracts only value players and keeps the likes of "Janus" away.
    It will interesting to see as ORI gets near its all time high if we have cleaned out all the sellers and will put in a solid 15% gain to the end of the year.

    All the best to my fellow shareholders.

    Michael- NY

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    • Hello all! I am new to this board, I have never held ORI, but it turned up on one of my screens. I consider myself a value investor, Benjamin Graham being my guide. Not as experienced as some here, but being in the game since -96. Being a resident of Finland, I have invested in US stocks for only little over a year.

      A phenomenon I have encountered in my search for cheap investments is that insurance seems to be "out", according to Wall Street. There are lots of insurance stocks selling at or below book-value, and P/E's around 10 or below. I have been holding GFR and NWLIA in the insurance sector, for the last year, and they have done well.

      Why shouldn't insurance stocks in general be selling at about general market evaluations (P/E's about 15, at least)? Does anybody have a view on this one?

      • 2 Replies to ostrobothnia1
      • You need to value ORI against its peers. All of them (FNF, FAF, ORI, LFG etc.) have very low p/e's. The market views them as companies that need huge reserves to cover claims. But the reality is that claims are pretty slim. Also the sector is tied to interest rates and are viewed as vulnerable to wild market whims, although history has proved otherwise.

        If you can get past the low p/e I would highly suggest this sector. They have done VERY well even in the face of rising interest rates. Personally I would opt for FNF as they are the most shareholder focused one (VERY nice $10 dividend this year). Also, FNF will spin off it's title component and unleash it from the low p/e's and get it out of this sector. Having said that though, I really don't think you can go wrong here. ALL are well run companies and good competitors.

        This sector fits well with Ben Grahams ideals. Very good value investment....and his protege, Warren Buffett, is always rumored to be considering this sector for a major investment or acquisition by B.H.

        My advice here is just my own personal opinion. Do your own due diligence before investing.

    • the_millionaire_next_door the_millionaire_next_door Jul 5, 2005 11:50 AM Flag

      Thanks for the post. It's good to hear that "regular Joes" can achieve such outstanding returns over a long period.

      As time goes on, I hope to be able to make posts like this. Over the last few years (since I started tracking), I'm right about even (slightly above) the S&P500 index. My 401k has performed the best, with 19% avg return over the past 3 years, largely due to GD stock.

      disclaimer: not a real millionaire

    • thanks for the post---so much of what you said makes sense

19.05May 23 4:02 PMEDT