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Old Republic International Corporation Message Board

  • hike_mike hike_mike Apr 29, 2007 12:42 PM Flag

    Question:Bond Yields-2006AR

    Approx 10% of ORI's bonds mature every year, and that would mean that therefore 10% more are exposed to today's interest rates
    (at whatever duration they expect). Just how will that affect the average YIELD of the bonds ?
    It seems to me that we have been in a rising interest rate environment, which has hurt the NAV of the bonds, but helped the yield (ie. income).
    That yield increase is a lagging value, but I have not worked out the likely effect upon the interest earned. Is this a significant amount in terms of the net income ?
    I ask because it seems that ORI's net income is heavily dependent upon the Combined Ratios and therefore most of ORI's income actually comes directly from the underwriting
    (page 52). On the other hand, investment income and net income are close, so the CR must be netted out by other considerations. Investment Income = 341.6 vs 452.4 (2006 net income page ii) (pretax 680.1)
    So a 1% increase in yield (assuming ALL the bonds are now at the current rate) would correspond to approx 20% pretax income increase which would be significant over that period. If we assume 1/2 of the bonds already take that into account (as the interest rate increase has been slow over the years, it would still be 10% on an interest basis. I do not include the notational market value of the bonds in this calculation as I assume they will be held to maturity as stated in the text.

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