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Old Republic International Corporation Message Board

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  • ori.investor ori.investor Apr 18, 2012 10:59 PM Flag

    Will ORI Cut Dividend?

    If you take out the mortgage division loss, the company had .88 in operating profits in 2011. If you put a multiple of 12.5 on it, the stock is worth 11.

    The uncertainty around the mortgage division means that there won't be a high multiple put on earnings. But the company has said that even though the MI division has losses now, their modeling shows that the MI runoff will eventually end up positive.

    Each earnings report will give more clarity to how the runoff is progressing and what the earnings growth is in the other divisions. I'm bullish.

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    • there is no way in heck the mi division will break even in runoff, their modeling is wrong (not surprising - this is a company that doubled down on the mi industry by buying PMI and MTG stock), they are paying claims at 50 cents on the dollar for a reason, but nonetheless, ori is isolated from any shortfall in the mi division, worst case the department of insurance of NC seizes the sub and ori no longer owns the sub, there is an issue of some debt covenants that they would have to deal with, but this is why ori is combining all the mi/credit businesses, so they can make a clean cut when the time comes.

      • 1 Reply to paidbasher38291
      • In the conf. call last week they again stated that they expect the mortgage division runoff to be positive. I don't expect the mi/credit businesses to be sold. But if they are, all the better.

        I didn't quite get the reason for the selloff on Thusday and Friday. I added on both days. It appears that they are on track for another good year, not including the MI losses.

 
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