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Old Republic International Corporation Message Board

  • ori.investor ori.investor Jan 27, 2012 7:59 AM Flag


    The investment income isn't sustainable and the mortgage insurance losses could cause the company to be out of compliance with debt covenants, meaning they'd have to cough up over a billion dollars.

    That's the bad news. The good news is that without that mortgage insurance albatross, the company would be very profitable, and it's getting better.

    ORI is in the S&P 500 - if the overall market tanks, it's going down as well. And being out of compliance with debt covenants would trigger a negative reaction. Not to mention that the mortgage insurance losses will continue for the foreseeable future. It's definitely not an investment for people who want a sure thing.

    Nonetheless, I like the risk/reward here. IMO they made a wise strategic decision to put the MI division in runoff. Those losses only have to be paid once. They're not incurring new obligations. Whereas the other lines are writing new policies and growing.

    It appears that for now they will maintain the dividend. If their debt is called due to non-compliance, they have most of it on hand now. Not for the weak kneed, but I'll keep the shares that I currently hold and add on any dips.

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