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Old Republic International Corporation Message Board

  • kaiserjohn49 kaiserjohn49 Aug 2, 2012 10:19 PM Flag

    Quantuon - How many Shares?

    I will try again. QUANTUON - HOW MANY SHARES DO YOU OWN - LONG? I think a lot of us want to know. You only have NEGATIVE comments. You have so much to say and none of it is positive. You make it out like you know what upper management is thinking. You have as much as said you do not believe them because YOU JUST KNOW AND WE SHOULD LISTEN. So you have nothing good to say. So, how many shares to you OWN - LONG? I think it is a fair question. You have such a strong opinion. In the US we have the freedom of speech. I support that freedom. I also support the freedom to not listen. So, what is your agenda? HOW MANY SHARES DO YOU OWN - LONG? Whar or who are we listening to? So do you own even one share - long or are just talking like this so you can SHORT THE STOCK. It is amazing you can talk so much and just will not answer that simple question. HOW MANY SHARES DO YOU OWN LONG? I want to make sure that everyone who reads this get this answer.

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    • My agenda kaiserjohn or minute1trader (why the new ID?) is to make your life miserable so lets review some facts:

      1) ORI will write down 50mn+ on its final installment of their MGIC investment -> lest you forget, Aldo doubled down on PMI and MGIC in the midst of the housing blow-up but I guess he couldn't tell he was in the midst of a maelstrom

      2) The 200mn that MI owes ORIC is a total loss. THe good news is the NC will probably not put MI into receiver since they like getting that 100mn in tax transfers

      3) CCI risk in force is much higher since they took all the claims off the books that they rescinded with specious reasoning. They've already lost one suit and they will have to settle BOA bringing those back on the books.

      4) CCI risk is not walled off from ORI so losses will impact shareholders

      5) Their current book of business is performing worse and, with the fiscal cliff looming, that is not pretty. If the economy enters recession all bets are off.

      6) Aldo's purchases were merely reinvestment of dividends - whoopee!

      7) Chris Nard - the guy who got ORI into this mess - is still at the firm and looks like to succeed Aldo -> what a joke

      8) Aldo is, okay, elusive, okay, not forthright, okay. Oh and I love those hokey sayings. And he's enriched himself with all those shares at your expense.

      Now if you would please respond to everyone why knowing how many shares I am long or short matters? It doesn't bother anyone else? How does it impact your decisions? Sounds like u got a little too much risk on my friend

      • 1 Reply to quantuon
      • I think quantuon has done longs like myself a favor. He is forcing me to re-examine my investment decision. He has articulated his bear position, and done so logically. He's not a mindless basher stirring up trouble with vague attacks on the company.

        People who own the stock should be able to say what they diasgree with in his points - or if they don't disagree with a point, why it doesn't affect their willingness to buy the stock.

        One thing no one can disagree with - the company screwed up royally by insuring subprime mortgages, thinking they were AAA. And no one at ORI was held accountable. I acknowledge that and have weighed into my decision-making. And they did "double down" at the start of the crisis with their MI company investments, not grasping how severe it was going to be.

        But since then, IMO the company has done the right things. First, they LIGHTENED their position in MGIC in early 2011 after a significant bounce. MGIC was over $10 per share in early 2011. It was perfect timing:

        http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-21/old-republic-decreases-stake-in-mortgage-insurer-mgic-by-28-.html

        Next, IMO they were 100% correct to get the H out of that line of business and preserve their capital. They didn't "throw good money after bad." And I applaud Aldo for trying to spin off the toxic divisions completely. Wish he had been allowed to do so.

        He is not a flashy speaker. He is a crusty good ol' boy that doesn't seem to care if Wall Street likes him or not. But his one-foot-after-another approach to finance is the best way out of this mess. The company was sitting on tons of cash as the crisis unfolded, and it probably helped save them.

        As for the fiscal cliff/recession, that adds risk, but it's not company specific risk.

        I'll look at the financing points again. But right now, I don't see anything to make me think I'd want to sell ORI. I was hoping for a panic selloff to lock in some 10% yield.

 
ORI
14.68-0.22(-1.48%)Sep 19 4:01 PMEDT

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