Who sold yesterday? and how much did you lose? and do you regret it today? be honest - here's what I looking at 4th quarter should be the best for gol - should beat the street and I'm waiting until the numbers to come out - if we get a good pop will dump if not depending on the news may hold or dump - John
I can't see where the Forbes "Bargain ADRs" article mentions GOL. As far as I can determine, it lists LAN as the only bargain airline ADR.
As I said here the other day, I doubt that there is any rush to buy GOL right now. The market appears to me to be overextended, especially in the airline group.
In my opinion, the mid-air collision has nothing to do with GOL's safety. However, Brasilians are VERY superstitious people. If there's a news article about someone getting killed in an elevator accident, they'll walk the stairs for the next 10 years rather than ride in elevators. That's just the way they are. The media in Brasil sensationalizes everything to the point of making people paranoid. Brasilians are extremely kind, gentle people, but they are also very child-like in many ways. One result of the media coverage of the mid-air collision has been a new wave of anti-American sentiment in Brasil. Most Brasilians already dislike the present U.S. administration intensly, so it was easy to divert blame away from their ATC system and lay it on the crew of the American-owned business jet. I speak regularly (daily) with friends in Brasil, and they believe that the ATC problems will be fixed by year-end. That's what they're bring told by the press, and they have a tendency to believe just about anything. In the meantime, the American crew is still being held against their will in Brasil despite the apparent lack of evidence that they were at fault in the accident. The Brasilian authorities seem intent on making a charge of something - anything - stick no matter how bogus it might be.
Your comments on the typical Brazilian character are interesting but I don't think they throw much light on GOL's prospects. Of course, another plane crash would at least temporarily spook anybody from flying regardless of nationality. I lived several years in Brazil and did not notice a noteworthy level of superstition in the thinking of the typical Brazilian. Aside from that issue, you must remember that all forms of longdistance public transportation have a high level of risk. The roads are poorly built, the driving skills are poor, there are alot of trucks on the road and the drivers do not have a professional attitude. I recall on Brazilian who carried a pistol with him on long car trips and claimed he shot out the tires of trucks that tried to trick him. So there a plenty of car and bus accidents. So air travel looks relatively safe and certainly fast in comparison. I recall reading a newspaper eitorial article some 30 years ago of the dangerous traffic conditions from Sao Paulo to Viracopos airport in Campinas. The writer noted several car accidents while making that trip. So far as airplane accidents are concerned, I recently read a long list of airplane accidents
going back for years. The only difference being that today planes are bigger and so there a more fatalities/injuries than in the smaller planes. The point is that the Brazilians are no strangers to travel accidents of all types and I don't think this will detract from the growth of TAM or GOL in the long term. The fundamentals still look good to me. You don't get bargains when all is rosy. Consider our responses to 9/11; our major airlines are now on a roll despite their weaker fundamentals vis-a-vis GOL.
And I think that LAN(LFL) air also has weaker fundamentals' look at yoy growth and margins, but is also on a roll. Go figure. Fundamentals will out and I don't think it will take years for GOL; more like 6 m. jmo.
I give up, I am not selling (out of pure stubbornness to force them to pry good stocks from me only through bankruptcy), but I give up.
Watching this sell off everyday is pure frustration. And now I am convinced it will never go up again. (hyperbole)
The last 23 days trading days, GOL has been able to close less than 1% off its High a whopping one time.
In that period since October 24, it has been able to close above its Open price a sterling 4 times, 17%.
Sure, the General Market Weakness today doesn't help, but this is boring.
Gol has already stated what the delay impact will mean and crowded skies mean them and Tam and some small others have a monopoly going.
But chins up, the Day After the Day After the return from Thanksgiving, (Tuesday), Gol began its a monster run, gaining 34% from that day to the end of the year.
IMO, anyone who bailed out yesterday will have another opportunity to get back in, perhaps even lower. Notice the after hours selloff today. There seems to be good support just above 25; if it breaks that we could possibly see the 20 area. Just a guess, of course, but the worst might not yet be over. However, I DID NOT sell yesterday. (If I had done so, it would have hit 35 today.)
lol- I wish it would have hit $35 - only been in this stock for a short period of time but boy does it move - I can't figure which way it is going to break but I like the growth potential - one person said on the board buy it and tuck it away - I see why he said that if you watch this too much you will get an headache - Happy Thanksgiving all