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GOL Linhas A Message Board

  • rbotterb rbotterb Jan 17, 2008 12:54 PM Flag

    Possible Technical Breakdown

    at the moment, GOL has pushed down to the last of its support levels around 19.40 +/- .45.

    There is now a technical breakdown from single support out there at 18.95 with downside target of 17.02.

    As of today, TAM is now in a technical breakdown, so I wouldn't be surprised if GOL follows either today or Friday.

    At this point, the US market has pulled back to the point where maximum downside pain is coming to anyone long and we may soon see if we get a point of capitulation where things finally make a bottom in this cycle, or if the pain to the downside will just continue until everything gets crushed as the year unfolds.

    I wish I could be more optimistic at the moment and say there are some buying opportunities coming, but at the moment everything seems to be in falling knife mode and its hard to say where that bottom bounce will be.

    For now I continue to hold a small long position in GOL in my IRA I opened recently, but at the pace this market is going, I'm not too interested in adding to it until this market (and probably the US Fed) gets its act together - and in the case of GOL, ditto with Brazilian Govt as well.

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    • WATCH OUT! Bovespa is plunging today. Gol is falling above 6% and the dollar climbing 2% against the Real. Expect a huge decline on tuesday�s opening. I am confident this baby will rebound but the truth is that the market meltdown is painful for us longs...

      Cheers

      Ari

      • 1 Reply to aaisen
      • Yep, the Asian and European markets got hit as investors decided that the current ideas on the table in the US to help the US economy get back on its feet is missing the mark.

        Doesn't surprise me that the LA markets are getting kneecapped today too.

        I'm figuring this upcoming week will be another week of pain until the politicians show they have a clue what is really going on and get of their butts to actually do something intelligent about it - I'm not holding my breath on that happening.

        The ideas getting thrown around with the $500-1000 checks may be a feel good type response by the US Congress and White House, but I know if I get one of these checks, it will mostly go into paying off bills, not new spending. I suspect many middle class taxpayers in the US may do the same with at least part of their checks.

        Big issue so many politicians can't seem to come to grips with is the issues right now is in the structural parts of the banking sector in US, even though its now crushing the real estate in the US and therefore making many folks in the US now slam shut their pocketbooks.

        Biggest issue is the insurance area for bonds, both municipal and particularly mortgages. Right now the MBIAs and others in the sector are basically on a headlong run to zero and could go BK almost any time - if not this week, then in the next couple weeks w/o the government stepping in to straighten out that mess. Yes, the current administration doesn't like the concept of govt ballouts getting in the way of free market capitalism. OK, fine. Then get ready for that free market to take a crash and burn and deal with the rest of the US economy crashing and burning with it.

        Unless the govt steps in to deal with the financial insurance problems right now (and very soon), then the banking system will soon just die and everything will just come to a halt in the US economy (and ripple out to many other parts of the world as well).

    • Have to agree---the marketplace has been on a binge and all feel they "deserve" a good hangover.

      I have added only one stock recently---HAL---despite all the gloom oil requiremnts are still expected to climb 2.3% in 2008 globallly--SLB was at a high spike---HAL is closer to its real pricing and should not go much lower.

      Will be curious to see how Brazilian economy does vs US over the next 6 months--there has been a US/Brazil decoupling underway--this downturn may sever the cord and let Brazil stand more on its own.

 
GOL
4.62-0.05(-1.07%)Oct 22 4:02 PMEDT

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