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Huntsman Corporation Message Board

  • barnstormer60 barnstormer60 Jun 12, 2009 1:13 PM Flag

    Order Denying Pre Admittance of Disputed Documents

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    • "we should at least be above eight dollars on the anticipation of a court award"

      I absolutely disagree. I provide specialized services to the financial community. I have close relationships with traders and fund managers. In most cases when I mentioned HUN they told me "no sale". Most felt the downside offset the upside plain and simple. HUN rhymes with RUN to them in the meantime.

      A few bought some spec shares personally but mostly they're standing by waiting to crown me in gold or in thorns... but they're mostly waiting just the same. I'm a schmuck or a genius and it's all in the hands of a jury to decide.

      These same guys aren't stupid and they're watching just the same. I think they move HUN the last couple bucks if things go our way. Pure anecdotal evidence, but I rely on that to make money every day.

    • Conversely, Einstein once said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

      No matter what we say, SJD, the only thing that will soothe your troubled heart in the next few days. Am I overstepping by guessing that if there is no settlement next week, you won't wait for a trial result to sell?

      Don't go crazy, it's only money...

      (I love that stupid phrase! It's like saying, "it's only air...")

    • I agree with Naomi....
      I believe it was Immanuel Kant(the philospher)who stated,"....an abnormal result from an abnormal situation...is normal".

      deej

    • Re the volume - people have already made their bets on this and are now just waiting to see who the winner is. There's no real news lately that would bring in new buyers or cause sellers to dump.

    • SJP,
      Peut-être.

      A huge percentage of HUN shares are inside and never see the light of day. Volume has not been high, presumably because, of the outside shares, most are being held by people like us who think the trial or a settlement will benefit HUN. The relatively few shares that are trading are pretty directionless and IMO not a meaningful indicator of much.

      Add to that that trials are inherently risky (and the world has become a very risk averse place), and, more importantly, the appeals process, if it gets to that, can delay any payment for an indeterminate period of time.

      I have to rely on my own judgment and experience for whatever they may be worth. I look at this like I look at doubling down when the dealer is showing a 6 - I don't know that the dealer will bust, but I like the odds for a change.

      Ce qui sera sera

    • <<...the share price is down more than the market and its industry. ...concern in face of less than supportive market opinion.>> <<...should at least be above eight dollars on the anticipation of a court award to HUN.>>

      OK. Trying to SQUEEZE a unique situation into a GENERAL market template, first mistake. "Should". Second mistake. Again trying to SQUEEZE a UNIQUE situation into what a general market situation SHOULD do.

      Ain't gonna work that way. If UNIQUE ain't GENERAL MARKET, what "should" it do? Exactly what it's doing.

      Go HUN!

    • Jkap,
      It's hopeful investors and speculators... but who's selling? More to the point, the share price is down more than the market and its industry. I have not parted with a single share or call, not yet, but I have some concern in face of less than supportive market opinion. I have been doing this for a few years. If our analysis of the trial prospects is accurate, we should at least be above eight dollars on the anticipation of a court award to HUN.
      N'est ce pas?
      SJD

    • LOL another score for banks , this thing smells fishy . Maybe a " big donation " from banks? mmmm

    • Thanks. Very interesting. On its face it may look like a win for HUN, but what it really does is turn the opening statements into avoidance of landmines. You can each make your case, but if you reference any disputed document, OR THE CONTENTS OF ANY DISPUTED DOCUMENT, I'll hold you in contempt. I suspect that this is a bit of a downer for HUN in that HUN's case probably has greater reliance on disputed documents. On the other hand, I doubt that opening statements to a 4 week trial are going to mean very much substantively - except for the first impression of the lawyers on the jurors. I am betting (a lot) that HUN's local talent makes a much better first impression.


      So, at the end my sentiment remains

      • 3 Replies to ijkaplan
      • makes no difference, the referred to documents will be evidence and reviewed by the jury at some point, time to hunker down and stay tight fisted... the banks will either cave in and try to settle early or HUN will get a sizeable judgement. I dont see too many other sceanrios as workable. What happens later / is HUN sold to China? - at this point have no bearing on today's or next few weeks' share price.

      • ijkaplan,
        Read it again Hun wanted the documents to be silenced in the opening statement so they got what they wanted, the banks are the ones who were lost on this one.

      • jkap: Don't you think there's something to the fact that this was HUN's motion? I think it gets to the issue that the banks have such a weak case, they needed/wanted to get in some opening digs about a disputed document(s), and HUN - though I suppose you are right might also have benefitted from other disputed docs - didn't want to give them any chance to use the opening statements to bolster their crappy case.

        That's my takeaway.

        As to local talent, I have been so impressed with Kathy Patrick just reading the transcripts of the MSJ's, etc. and I imagine she will be kicking serious A$$ as she gets her many chances to speak before a jury.

        Assuming we get much beyond Monday!!

        Skibum: While I agree on your settlement proposition and the share price scenario going forward, I'm not seeing your point about the 12% being somehow equivalent or whatever to the settlement award sharing. A settlement award sharing of >>$400MM would be the equivalent to <<$2/share of HUN stock. So the stock has to run a LONG way to get to a place that would really constitute a "win" for Apollo on missing out on the settlement share. But you are pointing out something else which is of course true: the structure of the HEX/HUN settlement definitely provided great upside for Apollo regardless of whether or not the ever shared in a pre-trial settlement.

        RUN HUN

 
HUN
27.44+0.43(+1.59%)Aug 20 4:02 PMEDT

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