Here's the deal, the stock action since the settlement announcement does not constitute a referendum on the current value or future prospects of HUN. It is nothing more than a wholesale liquidation by shareholders who owned HUN for one reason, the potential for a windfall resolution of the litigation. Some of those sellers had significant profits, some of them did not. Apparently however, such shareholders owned a meaningful percentage of HUN's free float. The point is that these folks have and are selling because, from their perspective, they lost. So,again from that perspective, it's time to move on. It doesn't matter to them that the settlement(s), dissapointing as they may be to those who sought for a windfall, are very positive for HUN, the business, that they insure HUN's ability to weather whatever the economy brings (or does not bring), that they allow HUN to strengthen its business such that when the cycle turns (and IMO, it already has), it will emerge an even more attractive acquisition candidate than it was when HEX and HUN signed their DMA. The one thing I know is that this kind selling abates, and when it does, a whole new kind of investor steps in. This new investor is analyzing HUN outside of the context of the litigation. What they see is an incrdibly well-managed deep cyclical at the bottom of its cycle with a balance sheet to weather any contingingency. They see a stock that has been mis-priced on the basis of exogenous psychology. They see a company with a controlling shareholder who has a clearly stated goal of selling the company (at the right time).
You should mark this post, because anyone who buys or owns HUN at current levels ($5.20) is going to be very richly rewarded (3X) over the next 18 months. I realize that for a lot of you 18 months seems like a lifetime, and that you'd rather trade in and out of a hundred things, even if you earn less money doing so. I also realize that there are a deluded few who think 300% in 18 months is chump change. To those I say, good luck, and let's see how long you survive doing this for a living. For the record, I've been doing it for 27 years.
""But... I did think the settlement would be higher more like 1.5-2billion.""
You obviously haven't read the propaganda. They settled for "$1.7 billion." In fact, $1.5 billion was the number I was tossing out with great consistency starting in January when I still thought a settlement was likely.
<<< you credit management with the move from mid-20's to mid-2's... but you don't credit them with the move from 3's to 5's on which you have profited handsomely. Sorry, but I find your logic a bit baffling.>>>
No, Lindyman, I am afraid it is your logic which is now baffling...you've blown an O Ring I think in the reentry... the statement above?? Are you familiar with orders of magnitude and relative size of movements?? Up is good and down is bad to you, no matter the size or context??
<<<I think HUN's management has played the hand they were dealt as well as any managemet team could under the circumstances. >>>
ummm, maybe perhaps with the exception of the ROH management?? and the Lyondell management?? and and and and....you're whacky here...
<<< I still have healthy profits in HUN, so please explain how I'm wrong. >>>
you're not wrong on the WHOLE thing....yet. you're just wrong on the magnitude of the settlement and therefore the present value of the payoff calculation..
and finally, on your contention that HUN is so well managed. Will be a real test of this to see how operations have been holding up with these distractions. I think you're asking a lot, and not confessing enough....
Stay on this board! We need experience like you.At least, I do.I appreciate you helping us "grasshoppers" on this board.
I'm learning a lot with this HUN thang.A great school and I dig the biz(investing).I like the fact that one can learn all they need with a good stock like this.It causes one to stretch their comfort zone and expectations.I remember a story about a famous photograher who was telling someone about how you can get all your photo needs without going anywhere.He stated that through the years, he had gone all over the world to get the best shots of this and that.Amazing places and amazing things.Yet, now that he was older(and famous-er :).....)..he realizes that he can get all the beautiful and amazing shots that he used to seek, right at home!!!! (There was a moral to the story there, somewhere!!!)!
Anyways, it's nice to get a good stock education "right here at home"!!!
Thanx.....you and others.
BTW.......I've been trying for a half hour to pronounce(mentally) this word I found in your post: contingingency. , and twsisted the hell outta my tongue!(Maybe my Hungarian friend, Kaarlo, can wrap his "Ungarische" tongue around it!!!!!! :)
REgarding your assertion that the world's economic climate is a part of this stocks decline, no doubt about it, but other companies management have minimized the damage, while Huntsman's management, if you can dignify their efforts with that designation, focused on making a deal in a market where deals were impossible to complete. Absolutely no foresight by this bunch!
As long as they maintain the dividend, I will hang on in the vain hope that out of this mess comes a desire to actually grow a business.
Uh, you mean that "dead cat" double, or as the day tarders would say two-bagger.
Btw, why do daytarders call stocks that multiply "X-baggers" and traders who lose money "bag holders?" If you're long a stock and it's a three-bagger shouldn't you be the bag-holder? Just curious 'cuz I was never able to find that daytarding handbook.
Work, churn and earn?
Golf and earn?
... what's the question?
Reaud doesn't have to hurry. Huntsmans don't have to hurry. They move with purpose and reason. And I'm quite confident their moves this week have purpose and reason -- all fine to this HUN holder. Lean, clean, fighting machine makers lookin like to me.
hmm. HUN holder - umm that sounds kind of nazzy! yowza!
""Not to quibble, but you credit management with the move from mid-20's to mid-2's (while you were not a shareholder), but you don't credit them with the move from 3's to 5's on which you have profited handsomely. Sorry, but I find your logic a bit baffling.""
Of course, we all know (because mkgtpro told us so) that the drop to $2 was caused by the evil banks, while the recovery to $5-6-7 was all due to the Huntsmans' management skills. At least that was the argument he was advancing to justify his use of the $2 level as his measure of the damages owed HUN. As I recall, neither the banks nor Apollo ever played a role in running HUN. It has always been under the control of the Huntsmans. And, of course, the dramatic change in the economy and market conditions over the past two years played no role in the decline of HUN's stock price, even though everywhere you look you see stocks trading well off their previous market highs.