You should also keep in mind that Cramer is no longer in the hedge fund business; he's in the entertainment business. He wants to bring in viewers and in trying to do so, he needs to make it interesting so people keep coming back. In doing so, it would not be surprising to think he might try and get viewers a little more excited about his picks than is warranted. In trying to boost his ratings, it is understandable that he might cheerlead a little bit more than the typical market professional. Not surprisingly, this might set his picks up for disappointments on the performance front.
Although I mostly agree with you, I have to take issue on one thing. The primary purpose of his show is not to provide the latest "hot pick". He says all the time that his job is to entertain and EDUCATE. I like listening to his analysis of the situation, the stock, the company, the economic cycles, and the overall market. I use his recommendations as starting points to do my own DD. The part of the show that I don't like is the so-called "Lightning Round". The reason I don't like it is that it contradicts his own principles. He states all the time that you should do one hour per week of homework per stock. But yet, he can recommend or reject thousands of stocks in just a few seconds!! Is he doing his homework on all those stocks?
As you know in the lighting rounds he puts the stock in certain sectors and as fast as lighting depending on how the sector is doing at the time will put a buy hold sell on it. Your right, only a fool would invest like that. Go longs!