...any day now we'll start the pre-earnings runup. Of course, one of these days while the "fast money" folks think they're being clever selling the earnings, WHAM!, out comes the announcement that HUN has retained GS to explore strategic alternatives. In the meantime, the waiting is fine with me.
The other thing that is predictable is that in the early phase of its up moves, HUN always has a big day (such as today) on a day when the market is notably down. This pattern is so predictable, that I'd be surprised if it were rules based. Enjoy the ride.
Lind wrote: "TA, there is no such thing as a "marketmaker" of a particular stock. If you're going to trade, you should first have a solid grasp of how it works."
I'll have to agree with that. That's one reason I read this board. I'm interested in any information on how the market works.
Lind wrote: "Perhaps you were referring to the specialists on the floor of the NYSE,"
Well, yes, I was referring to the specialists and to the desks where the traders all gather around when they are buying or selling that particular stock.
Lind wrote: "but if so, you should be aware that less than 20% of the volume in NYSE listed shares is transacted on the the floor (at the post) of the NYSE specialist."
Keep in mind that I am referring to a time about 10 years ago.
TA wrote: "I saw an advertisement once for a subscription where you could actually listen in real time to the activity going on around the marketmaker of your particular stock."
TA, there is no such thing as a "marketmaker" of a particular stock. If your;re going to trade, you should first have a solid grasp of how it works. Perhaps you were referring to the specialists on the floor of the NYSE, but if so, you should be aware that less than 20% of the volume in NYSE listed shares is transacted on the the floor (at the post) of the NYSE specialist.
Lind wrote: "TA, are you telling me that you attempt to capture five minute moves?"
I'm not trying to capture any particular time segment, by watching a five-minute chart. That time period just seems to suit me better than a 15-minute chart of a one-minute chart.
Lind wrote: "How do you determine that such a move is about to occur?"
I watch the stock chart pattern as it develops, and I watch the activity of the buys and sells, and from watching ten bazillions such charts and patterns and activities, at times a little voice in my head will say "buy" or "sell" and it seems to work. An aside: I saw an advertisement once for a subscription where you could actually listen in real time to the activity going on around the marketmaker of your particular stock. I never tried it, but always thought that might be an indicator worth investigating. But I guess you get pretty much the same thing with a time&sales display.
Lind wrote: "Is time (5 minutes) your sole criterion for closing positions?"
No, I have no particular time set to sell, I just wait until I think the spike has run out of gas. Sometimes, I get it right, and sometimes I miss out of extra profits. That is one of my weak points: I tend to pull the trigger a little too quickly. That's also one of my strengths, too. :)
Lind wrote: "How do you know when you are wrong?
I usually know within a few minutes of initiating the trade. That doesn't necessarily mean the stock price is going against me, it may also mean the price is just not climbing the way I was expecting it to do. In that case, it is better to get out, and let the move clarify itself before getting back in.
Lind wrote: "I have wriiten and traded models that capture short term auto correlation, but they are extremely complex? Do you have some background in statistics?"
I've had nothing other than basic statistics. But if you want to discuss your models, go ahead, and I'll try to keep up. My nephew writes computer trading software for a firm in Chicago (Citadel). If you get too deep, he can help me out with the concepts. :)
Hey LP, did you mean GLD?
If so, Paulson has been one of the largest (if not the largest holder for a long time. I hold Mr. Paulson in very high regard, although I do not share his view on gold. Remember that the man is running $27 billion and his gold bet may simply be a "fat tail" hedge as opposed to an outright directional bet.