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First Bancorp Message Board

  • davejphys davejphys Oct 26, 2009 10:35 AM Flag

    I predicted below $2 before earnings

    Still have a chance. Look to be setting new lows today and plunging as usual. At least by end of the day we will find out what all the selling is about. Obviously the market is predicting a disaster even worse than last Q, perhaps a loss as high as $200MM. I really, really doubt that will happen. Still think they can break even or make a small profit. But you never know. Lets wait and see.

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    • You have been hanging around at westernbank too much, that is something they would do.

      Maybe they should merge western and first...they starting to act the same. Bitter rivals?

    • Yes, but that (Q2) provision was mainly for the Florida construction loans. If Aleman is a good banker they'll catch up now and provide substantially in Q3 to deal with the island economy.

    • FBP also took huge provisions in Q2. WHI took provisions in the single digit millions. THAT is small provisions.

    • BPOP's provision in Q3 was less because they did huge provisioning in Q2 and prior. FBP and others still have catching up to do on provisions. The island is facing a stubborn recession and rising unemployment.

    • I still don't see why everyone thinks the provisions need to be very high. Because of Florida? That portfolio is relatively small and they have been provisioning and charging off there for a while. They just completed 85% of their revaluation of collateral last Q. Puerto Rico is still bad but has not really changed much. BPOP's provisions for PR were not that bad. There were no major bankruptcies for FBP this past Q.

      The only real indication of large provisions is the stock price but I don't take cues on fundamentals from the stock market since I don't believe the market knows anything that I don't on this company. Could be wrong on that but I am usually not. Usually when these PR bank stocks move on no news it is NOT because there is secret information out there. It usually presents a trading opportunity. Best example is OFG's amazing plunge from $15 to $0.89 and back to $15. There was no change in fundamentals at all. It was all just irrationality. I rode that one part of the way up from $1 to about $4 over a month time-scale. Yeah, you get nervous but got to keep in mind that these stocks are not the subject of intense research by Wall Street. You are not at a large information disadvantage like you would be with say LEH or AIG. That is one of the main reasons I like to invest in these companies.

    • I agree with Davej. Nobody has the crystal ball. The last dollar drop has been due to the delay in having numbers which has ignited more the uncertainty (worst market enemy, except for shorts). I still don't understand how BPOP can publish numbers a whole week before FBP, being a larger and more complicated operation, not to mention all the huge money center banks. Last week I was saying they would report earnings that week, so I was totally wrong also...

    • Would you beleive I care because I am just a nice guy?

      We do agree on fundamentals of this company and since you bought at 2.01 you might believe what I do and that is this is way oversold and is due to have a pop soon and might even start this afternoon. Should that not happen, I will predict something else tomorrow.

      Earnings are pretty much irrelevant as I see this recovering no matter what, unless they are VERY poor and that probably will not happen, but they certainly will not be good. I expect 100MM loss after taxes due to more loan loss provisions. No chance for a profit whatsoever (we disagree there), and if they do by chance report one, I am market selling ASAP because the market will punish them dearly for that tomorrow due to not being realistic with their portfolio reserves.

      This is a steal at these levels and is too well capitalized to be beaten down this bad...and that is ultimately what will valuate them in the end (or at some point), regardless of their current lack of transparancy.


    • First of all, what do you care what I predict? I hope you or anyone else is making their own decision rather than following mine.

      Second, in investing you had better be constantly reevaluating your beliefs and changing your mind as new information arises. I will certainly change my mind after seeing this next earnings release and can't now predict in which direction that will be.

      Finally, any predictions about where the stock is going is simply for fun. I don't know where the stock is going any more than you do. My main concern is getting the fundamentals right. One is not really right or wrong based on the movement of the stock price. It may simply be random luck. Monkey's throwing darts have been shown to beat professional fund managers.
      How can you know where the stock is going on short timescales? What I really want to be right on is the fundamentals. That has its own uncertainly especially the quarter to quarter changes in provisions. But my main thesis that this bank is solid enough to recover to profitability on the time-scale of a year is what I wish you would judge me on. That, after all, is what matters in terms of ultimately making this a successful investment.

    • So is that why you bought back your position at 2.55 Dave????

      Gimme a brak, you predicted bottom at 2.50 then changed your mind a week or two later.

    • The volume has been so low that I dont think it indicates anything. I am trying to see when earnings will be released today but I cant seem to find anything on their site. Anyone have any info on when earnings will be announced today or if there will be any sort of call to listen to?

      • 1 Reply to thejumpingsheep
      • But yea I agree, I seriously doubt that this earning report will be worse than the last. It wouldnt make sense for insiders to buy in August if things were getting worse. It wouldnt make any sense at all if they thought that the company was about to go out of business in the near future. Note that one of the insiders was also their lawyer. I dont think that a lawyer would mess around or do anything questionable to endanger their license. Then again this is all speculation.

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