Goldman Sachs PT $15, Morgan Stanley PT $17. F massively undervalued
Hedgers who arbitrage stocks with Treasury bonds often under-value those stocks paying healthy dividends. That's due to the hedgers --
(a) assuming zero increase in the stock's dividend later on and
(b) buying a stock for its arbitrage value only, so holding it only until a capital gain is realized, not actually holding it for its future income stream.
Analysts add in the future income stream and thus possible dividend increases. If F's arbitrage valueagainst Treasuries is $12.50, then the future income stream must be worth $2.50 by GS's middle-of-the-road estimates and $4.50 by the MS team. Since MS's trading/services dept has in the distant past been a big short of Ford, that's an interesting view from their analysts.