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Ford Motor Co. Message Board

  • westervillekid westervillekid Mar 6, 2013 2:49 PM Flag

    US-Biodiesel 1.9% of total diesel mkt-Job growth to sharply increase in the coming year

     

    But the fact is, according to the Energy Information Administration, in 2012 the U.S. consumed 57.5 billion gallons of diesel fuel (excluding jet fuel). If you assume the U.S. EPA’s 2012 biodiesel production figures of 1.1 billion gallons are accurate, and if you further assume that the entirety of that production was consumed in the U.S., then biodiesel penetration in the diesel fuel pool comes in at a meager 1.9 percent.

    With up to 5 percent allowance in ASTM D975 and D396 (diesel fuel and heating oil specs, respectively) without labeling, there’s still plenty of room to grow just to reach a 5 percent penetration rate—in the existing consumption model that consists mostly of heavy-duty applications.

    To reach B5 saturation, this would require 2.874 billion gallons of biodiesel, nearly three times the production achieved last year, and significantly more than twice the 1.28 billion gallons the RFS2 requires this year.

    B20 has received greater approval in the heavy-duty sector than in the light-duty passenger sector. If we assume this trend is to continue, and eventually all heavy-duty diesels in the U.S. will be B20-compatible, then this opens the door to much greater biodiesel market growth. Keeping in mind the figures and assumptions from above, 20 percent of the current diesel fuel consumption would equate to about 11.5 billion gallons of biodiesel—10 times the production levels reached last year.

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