I sure didn't see a 52 week high coming in May but I didn't factor the Fed into the market... Ford has long been tied to market swings... The market is forward looking... The Fed has warned about tapering back and the reaction is a downward trend... I think your $12 guess is very reasonable.
It's headed sideways unless it shows signs that Europe has bottomed out. I'd say we stay between 14-16 this summer with great potential in the next couple years.
The Fed is not going to pull back just yet (they said this). They are simply going to monitor the data and begin to pull back when the economy is able to grow on its own. Remember, interest rates often make quick one direction moves then stagnate for long periods of time. So the recent momentum up will likely not last long. That said, in high interest rate environments, cyclical often do well. Since Ford is a cyclical company, they should continue to outperform. A $20-25 target within the next couple years is not out of the question.
Umm....the whole market tanked. Ford is already getting 5% on many of its car loans today while you can get a bank loan for around 2% plus so Ford has plenty of room on the loan side to still make money and lend at acceptable rates. Moreover, higher rates positively affect Ford's pension obligations. If rates were jumping to early 80s levels I would agree with you but overall the rate jumps everyone is talking about still leave rates at historic lows. It will have little affect on housing and auto loans.
F has invested big in China so my additional concern is with their economy showing signs of weakness + Europe at 20 year lows + consumer confidence waning + potential for higher interest rates = poor near term performance...I'd still be very surprised if we dropped below the $14's