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ConocoPhillips Message Board

  • number_jock number_jock Sep 25, 2004 7:50 PM Flag

    Time for our earning estimate contest

    It's that time of the quarter for our periodic earning estimate contest.

    The rules are simple;

    What will earnings be for COP this quarter and for the FY. One entry per contestant please.

    My estimates are 3Q= 2.52, FY=10.15

    The winner gets to keep his/her stock. The looser (the one most off on 3Q) must sell theirs and buy GOOG (or more GOOG is you already have some.)

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    • "Looks like Sentry62OK took the grand price in the first half of your competition.
      (MSG 26076)"

      I'll need to decline acceptance of the Grand Prize. In all honesty, I'll have to admit that my prediction was purely shooting from the hip based on $2.88 from Q2---simple as that. I essentially called for a repeat performance in Q3. It was 10% over-simplified analysis and 90% sheer luck. I couldn't do that again if I tried.

      Send the Grand Prize to somebody who worked for it using genuine analytical skills!

    • Good insight on the decreasing dollar.

      I am trying to adjust earnings for U.S. companies that buy resources abroad.

      Similarly with a lower dollar, companies that do more international sales should get a boost from the weaker dollar.

    • Sorry guys
      �50 oil is a long way off
      $50 oil is more of a reality.

      The weakening $ though, makes oil cheaper for the rest of the world. $50 oil today is equal to $45 oil two weeks ago due to exchange rates to most currencies.

    • Disnefied
      Looks like Sentry62OK took the grand price in the first half of your competition.
      (MSG 26076)
      When your'e back from EPCOT I guess you present him with a written aknowledgement of excellent prediction performance......

      Best thing is that I now see I'm going to be at least $0.50 too low on my own year end estimate. Should bring COP in at around 11.70-12.00 for year end. awaiting a Jan-Feb rally of $ 10-15 even if oil prices should go down to $40. (not likely though)

      Most interesting development I see is that targeted Chinese resrictions on domestic investments has only led to a large increase in chinese consumption. Trend is for a yearly economic expansion of 10%, not unlike Korea and Taiwan managed to do for 10-15 consecutive years. That will increase their energy demand to levels almost as unthinkable as �50 oil two years ago

    • COP Guesser . . . 3Q/2004

      Number Jock . . . . . . 2.52/10.15
      Sentry62OK . . . . . . >2.88
      Cool Hank Sheridan . . /10.15
      Auagboy . . . . . . . . 3.85/12.50
      PresentCSCer . . . . . 3.32/12.16
      Disnified Oiler . . . 2.65/10.62 (Msg 25973)

    • Q3 eps =3.32 Much Higher Crude, lower spreads
      Q4 eps =3.48 Higher Average Crude, higher sprds

      2004 eps = 12.16

      Remember that current Crude prices (roughly beginning 9/1/04) affect Q4.

      • 1 Reply to presentCSCer
      • I'm going to go a little out on a limb and up my 4Q Earnings estimate to $3.58.

        Here's why:
        Start here:

        Notice that June 1 through September 1 averages roughly $38-$39/bbl, about what Conoco reports in 3Q earnings statement.

        When you look at September 1 through December 1, the average looks like $48 or so.

        Also, notice this in the interim update: <<The company's actual crude oil and natural gas price realizations may vary from these market indicators due to quality and location differentials, as well as the effect of pricing lags.>>

        The "effect of pricing lags" tells me that the 1 month pricing lag that existed years ago when I was a Conoco employee probably is still in place, give or take. This just validates the date ranges I mention above. Also keep in mind, if this is accurate, that we're nearly halfway into 1Q05 from a pricing perspective, with an average price thus far around $44 for WTI Sweet.

        Please note: I'm NEVER right about this kind of stuff, and I'm usually high (in my estimates, I mean :-)

    • The bid for Lukoil should go through as planned at 8%. Looking forward to the planned sale. I am expecting 10.15 for FY. Go COP.

    • Mr. Number Jock:

      2Q actual earnings were $2.88. You are predicting a drop to 3Q down to $2.52.

      However, crude oil prices are going to be substantially higher during 3Q. What factors are being incorporated into your earnings drop? (lower production volumes? higher maintenance expenses? writedowns? other?).

      I am not grinding numbers but my intuition was an earnings greater than $2.88 for 3Q.

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