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ConocoPhillips Message Board

  • disnefied_oiler disnefied_oiler Oct 20, 2004 3:08 PM Flag


    I updated my model and also incorporated a better refined product split.

    3Q04 = $2.58
    This includes a 29 cent "hit" resulting from the 10/5 update. This is exactly the current analysts' consensus.

    4Q04 = $3.64
    This is based on 19 days of historical commodity prices and 73 days of extrapolation of this afternoon's interday pricing.

    2004 = $11.41
    Same old story. Analysts are $1.11 lower and will close the gap over the next 90 days.

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    • Bustfraud, I will admit again that I'm not familiar with the airline industry, and will yield to you.

      One doesn't need to be prosperous to drop 200 bucks on tix for a ball game. One needs to be a real fan, and keep in mind that is short for fanatic.

    • disnefied_oiler, I appreciate your devotion to the cause. As usual I know that with the help of your cray computer you are very close. We can blame the refining profits for the short-fall from last quarter, but the analysts better be ware that the 4th quarter will show great improvement and will lead to the $11 year that I humbly predicted. As far as the people over at "Fool.com" are running down Russian investment, and I just wait and worry. Even if COP looses the entire Russian investment, I still know the COP represent one of the best investment in the investment world.
      Best regards

    • WOW! My 3rd quarter estimate was 2.59. I was actually disappointed, but the decrease in refining margins was a big negative.

      I hope both you and I are wrong.

    • Disneied_oiler:

      You are very close to my estimates. I am showing $2.55 for 3Q and $3.95 for 4Q. The 4Q estimate is based on oil averaging $53 for the remainder of the quarter, which is of course, a big if.

      Wall Street is still in denial about oil company earnings, but will come around eventually. If my estimates for 2004 prove true, COP will have a trailing PE of around 7.5 based on today's closing price. That won't hold up. The stock price will have to move up.

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