Good insight rgchjr1945. My question is this. And I know it's a hypothetical, but in your opinion, what is a realistic stock price for COP just after the spin-off? Do you think it's in the $57-60 range, or perhaps just a little lower? If so, I'd imagine Phillip66 would trade at around $22-27 a share, but I'm just speculating. Wanted your take. Thanks. I just got into COP recently and it's my safest energy stock. (Also long KOG, MHR, SSN and DEJ).
Also own KOG & DEJ. IT is hard to project the pricing because you do not know how investors precieve future earnings. These big companies have had problems with volumes and COP as a big NG producer also has a problem here. Based on looking at their 2011 segment earnings they should make at least $5.50 and 10X earnings would be $55/share. I am thinking that PSX should be at the higher end of your range at $27/share. Again this is a guess looking at similar companies and what they trade at.
In the end I plan on holding my shares long term thinking both companies will do pretty well over the long pull. I think the M&R company is under appreciated due to the chemical and midstream joint ventures which should give the company additional growth. Midstream especially. Look at what has happened to OKE & OGE by moving big time into those businesses. SE owns the other 1/2 and is a great company to partner with (I own a big poition in SE). The NLG marketing is huge.