Folks forget the Saudis control the supply, and won't
put up with too far of a decline. We have short memories. Everytime people think its going to $10 a gallon, the Saudis spoil the party. Last time it crashed to $30, took 3 months of a Saudi cut in production to hit new highs.
Oil is like today's gold was yesterday. As long as mankind survives they will need carbon fuel for their stoves and automobiles. China is just now developing a real need for gasoline. I will invest in only oil products in the time remaining for me on this earth.
Your assets will keep abreast of inflation here. Just buy it and hold on.
And you'll likely do better than the average investor, imo. I'm not 100% in oil alone, I have some high yield natural gas plays and also SH as a hedge. I trade around that one via options. It's worked pretty well for me.
Why don't you tell us how much crude the US exports? Hint: other than a few bbls to Canada, the US doesn't export crude.
Then tell us how much oil in total US exports. Hint: WAY WAY less than we import.
You also might want to look up what the NG prices are in the rest of the world. Hint: nowhere near as cheap as in the US. Currently NG in the US is effectively stranded. It is over supplied and thus cheap. That is not true all over the world. Also both exporting NG and moving it around the world are much harder to do than exporting or moving crude oil. And in the US, currently exporting NG (again other than Canada) is effectivel impossibly. Won't always be that way and companies are working right now to change that. But it will still tank some time.
That's actually changing very rapidly. Several experts are now seeing the US in a position to be energy independent in as short as seven years, largly due to fracking and related extraction methods. I see COP and other majors increasing their domestic holdings by buying up some of the smaller producers in that period while slowly reducing their exposure to the middle east and other unpredictable areas.
The politicians will never let the US get energy independent. Not sure if it is a concious decision or just that when something is going well they want a piece of it and want to regulate it more and fine it more.