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ConocoPhillips Message Board

  • harold33272 harold33272 Jul 31, 2012 3:52 PM Flag

    From one COP shareholder to another (others); what are your expectations?

    From one COP shareholder to another (others), I was just curious to get everyone's take on their expectations here over the next 3-5 years. And of course I realize everyone has different goals. I'm appealing to the LONGS, of course.

    ** What's your expectation for COP's stock price over the next 3-5 years? What do you feel is realistic?

    ** And where do you see the dividend over the next 3-5 years?

    Me personally, I see the stock at $85-90+ in the next three years. I think in five years the dividend, at a clip of a modest and realistic 8% increase each year, should be in the $3.80-4.00 range.

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    • Article today says Berkshrie selling off shares shortly. Author feels stock will drop to around $52 by end of year or thereabouts. My concern is the sell off and the usual affects when Berkshire dooes this and his followers follow suit for no other reason.

    • If you mean the WLT 32 1/2s, i'm still short. Happy to own it there. Don't forget those insider buys
      Beemer

    • dewandastephens@bellsouth.net dewandastephens Aug 20, 2012 9:04 PM Flag

      Beemer, good morning and welcome back. Look at LVS puts of Jan 28's @ $.60. DEW

    • dewandastephens@bellsouth.net dewandastephens Aug 14, 2012 9:55 AM Flag

      Thanks Beemer. 10 DOLE's @ 10 = $585.31 using $1750 BP = 33% ROR. Better than my Vegas returns except last trip. DEW

    • dewandastephens@bellsouth.net dewandastephens Aug 14, 2012 8:15 AM Flag

      I have not read all of Sat's Barron's and failed to see this one. I love it and will hop on board since I got x money. Late last night, I found these gems ( I think)..I like the CBI's puts in the 20 range for Jan. Good $ and pretty safe' Also,look at an ADM combo/strangle 35/37 NCall of 14 and 15/18 put of 14 on the downside. I know you don't like the LEAP's but this is only a building block for the next 18 months, Both positions are good/safe money for the BP used( as I know it) ...about 4K required. Run the numbers and see the ROR. And then ladder one or both positions in the year ahead. I already made good $ on the Naked 37 calls and will write the 35's also this week. You mentioned the GMCR's yesterday. Since I already hold the 70 calls of 14, I am considering the 10 put of 14 as a combo and will ladder others (probably calls)later on. Remember the Barron article from a few weeks ago with a buy call on GMCR? Thoughts ?????? Oh...I reread your post from yesterday and noted the CMG position you had....I think all the restaurants stocks are highly overvalued (see EAT article from Barrons) but this baby I don't touch unless as a verticle play. Too much money involved and like going to a gunfight with a knive on this one. I'm a small time player. And for what it's worth, Sep/Oct are coming up and I see a downside ahead. Each day I am amazed that Mr Market plows ahead. I am only looking for safe puts with lots of downside protection and sitting in some cash. Dole meets my safety net. DEW.

    • Dewanda:
      Thank you for the clarification.
      As medicine is regional, so too is investment jargon. I really thought that I was missing something pertinent.
      I think that I'm going to be inactive for the rest of the week, with the exception of some calender rolls when app.
      ALTHOUGH...I did pick up on DOLE in Barron's over the weekend. After 2 days of review, I sold JAN 10 putsies X 10 for 60 cents. Take a look, and tell me what you think.
      Best
      Beemer

    • dewandastephens@bellsouth.net dewandastephens Aug 13, 2012 10:36 PM Flag

      Beemer, after replying to your post earlier and thinking (which is unusual for me today...long day) I stated SS puts which should have been CS (cash secured puts) no wonder you were puzzled since SS is going broke. I may drink the whole bottle of tequila tonight! How stupid can I be.....
      Anyway....Good morning to an early bird.

    • dewandastephens@bellsouth.net dewandastephens Aug 13, 2012 5:28 PM Flag

      I was only kidding you since I try to learn from you and ask you too many questions. I quickly realized from day one that you are not the average investor.Plus you have a great sense of humor. I love your puns and quick thinking remarks. If I try to discuss options with someone who asks me for investment advise, they have no idea what I am talking about.
      Most people who trade options, in my opinion, have no idea of what the company does or their history. Most people that I know who trade options are in it for a get rich quick thing since they paid thousands of dollars to learn option trading over a few week ends. If I am writing calls or puts, I know the facts about the stock just as if I was buying it.
      So obviously you know why you write the put and call due to your knowledge of the industry/stock.I see you hold calls on GMCR as I do but mine are the 70's of Jan 14. Won't closer them out since the seller wants a fortune to close it out. So I patiently wait it out. As for BWLD, naked calls have eaten my lunch too many times. I can't seem to make $ on them but think they are highly overvalued. Their wings are costly and very small plus grain prices are going through the roof. As for HOG calls in the summer, that one is new to me but I understand why. BDL is Bradley Airport (Hartford/Springfield.)I was being a smarty with the pick the stock up/option without knowing it will passing through the airport. Of course since you are on the east coast of CN, you might not know the airstop code for that airport. I fly a lot and often use stopcodes for certain area's of the country. Sorry for the confusion. As for SS puts, In an IRA, you can only write "covered calls" and sometimes "vertical calls" but you can also write "share secured" puts on stocks you want to own or think they are undervales. Thus you create revenue by agreeing to take a stock at a set price by letting the broker hold the entire amount of the stock that the put is on. I.E. a feb 50 put on COP will generate a $150 on each $5,000 that I place as security for the option is appx a 3% / 6% annualized ROR between on the investment. You may know this as another name but AMTD Brokerage uses this term I sometimes park money as SS with way ootm's in my IRA's if I have nothing else picked to buy inlieu of using their MM funds that pay nothing. 6% sure beats less than 1% in my thinking. Sorry for the confusion. You may know this as something else.DEW.

    • Avoiding you ??? Where did that come from?
      Also, you've actually befuddled me twice today! What are SS puts? What is BDL? I believe that I "know" my stocks, but what do you mean exactly?
      I Do write ootm naked calls, every summer on HOG. Am short the Jan 60s. Also just closed out successfully on GMCR, CMG, and BWLD. Still short BWLD Dec. 95s for an 85 cent premium. I'm sure my thought process is obvious here. What is not so obvious is that I wait for a technical break. Stocks will still have a high call premium, and then the tide goes out {hopefully}

    • dewandastephens@bellsouth.net dewandastephens Aug 10, 2012 1:24 PM Flag

      Sold WFC puts Jan 26 @ $.43 Already naked WFC 40 calls of Jan 13. Also sold BYD Jan 5 puts @ $.40. Already naked BYD 10 calls and 12 calls of Jan. 10 puts on each. Not a lot of $ but every little bit helps when you are swimming upstream with the little fish while watching over your shoulder for a bird. Have a great week-end. Dewanda

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