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ConocoPhillips Message Board

  • buybackerer buybackerer Feb 10, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    What we have here is a ....

    couple of things going on. COP's recent pull back is symptomatic of the industry , as supply , while harder and harder to get at , is aplenty.But wait there's more . Speaking to this point we also see that the expected growth rates for COP have fallen to and now reflect the already single digit rates of the integrated majors growth rates. These lower rates alone could account for the current pullback. Perhaps we are also seeing the lingering effects of Warren Buffets exit from the company as fund managers who follow him closely also pare their holdings in sympathy. And now that COP isn't an integrated oil company anymore, COP is more susceptable to the change in oil prices than integrated majors .And to this point ,people have speculated that this is precisely why Buffet sold his position in COP. The good news is ,COP isn't done juggling assets , as it positions itself to own higher margin assets, so, even with subdued oil prices and flat production , COP can increase Earnings per share for a undetermined period (short or long , I dunno). The other point I'd like to make is the geographic make up of COP's asset portfolio. COP , in it's asset juggling strategy has chosen geopolitically safer assets over riskier foreign ones . If and when an oil scare erupts somewhere around the world and prices skyrocket with supply disruptions , COP is positioned to take advantage of such troulble . And then there's the dividend . One of the best among major oil companies, currently around 4.20% at $64.50 a share , COP's very safe dividend helps float the stock price . COP has a 5 year average increase of the dividend of 7.5%. That will amount to about $.16 a share this year . Do I like this stock ? Hell yeah . Not a get rich quick stock , but a good solid conservative grower even in a low production growth environment , with solid fundamentals , above average cashflow, and a safe dividend , with the potential for extraordinary growth in the face of serious world geopolitic

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